Now don’t get me wrong, I am 100,000 times happier with this year’s team in comparison with the squads we’ve put on the floor the last couple of years. Hell, most of those guys should be/will be out of the league in the next year anyway. (Would you give a contract to Avis, Hassell, Blount, James, Hudson, etc.? No thanks…)
And, at least we’re not in a dead end situation like, say, Sacramento, New York, New Jersey, Indiana, maybe Chicago, etc. They’re going to take a ton of work and waiting to make contenders again.
But, here’s the bad news people—we’re not even close. With the recent “huge balls” trades for Pau Gasol, Shaq Diesel and Jason Kidd, there are a tonnage of really, really good teams in the NBA.
Right now, we’re like a 16-year-old county fair queen 2nd place winner at the Playboy mansion—give us 3 years, some beat-the-odds development, new boobs and we could get competitive…but to be playmate of the year, a lot of things are going to have to…errrr…fall in the right direction.
So, what is my reasoning here? Well, let’s think about what the undeniable top teams in the NBA are presently—San Antonio, LA Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons. Now, Golden State, Houston, Denver, Utah, New Orleans and Cleveland are very good, but let’s just stick with six juggernauts for now to keep things in perspective.
Below, I created a chart of all of the starters in the NBA ranked from best starter to worst starter by position. Now, for the sake of the general point, please don’t get stuck on specific rankings. YES, we’re all going slight disagreements here and there with my rankings, BUT regardless, we’re all going to somewhat close and the main point will not change for any reasonable person’s rankings.
Ok, as you can see, I have the players separated in sections of 5 players creating six tiers. Obviously, the top 5 are the money players at each position, and the bottom 5 are highly questionable or developing players at their respective positions.
So, let’s look at what type of tier starters each of the six juggernaut teams have:
San Antonio: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player (fringe)…then a bunch of big bodies at C and an aging, but gritty supporting cast at the wing between Bowen, Finley, Berry…and one of the best coaches in the business.
Phoenix: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player…a gritty, defensive 2 guard in Raja Bell, a great veteran presence who is just below the average NBA starter in Grant Hill and a few good bench guys like Diaw and Barbosa…and one of the best coaches in the business.
Los Angeles: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player…and 2 solid veterans that are average to above average NBA starters at their respective positions…gritty team players off of the bench in Farmar, Walton, Turiaf, etc…and on of the best coaches in the business.
Dallas: 3 “Top Tier” players and 2 above average NBA starters at their respective positions...plus a loaded bench of team-oriented NBA veterans, fantastic home court advantage…and a pretty good coach.
Boston: 2 “Top Tier” players, 1 “Tier 2” player…a gritty, blossoming, near average NBA starter at the point…and then a relatively weak bench other than Posey. Another fantastic hom ecourt advantage team.
Detroit: 4 “Tier 2” players and 1 near average, gritty NBA vet at center…a solid mix off the bench…and a pretty good coach.
Now, remember that Houston, Utah, and New Orleans all have 2 “Top Tier” NBA players as well. Denver has 3 “Top Tier” NBA players Cleveland has the best player in the game. These teams are seriously good for a reason. In fact, the only top tier players not on one of these top 11 teams in the NBA are Dwight Howard (Orlando’s pretty good), D-Wade (Miami will be amazing next year) and Caron Butler (stuck in Washington…probably should have Marion ranked ahead of him anyway thus making Miami very scary next year considering their cap space and a likely very high draft choice).
So, in sum, you should all notice a pattern—to be a top 10 team in the NBA, you have to have at least 2 “Top Tier” players. To be a true title contender, you have to have an assemblage of 2 “Top Tier” players, another top player, an assembly of gritty, team-oriented vets and very good coaching. Or, you can be the exception to the rule like Detroit two years ago and have a whole starting lineup of tier 2 players, great coaching and an amazing selfless, team chemistry.
So, what does this say about the Timberwolves? Yikes. Let’s think about this by young player…
Al Jefferson—Already a “Tier 2” player in my eyes. Al threatens to be a mainstay there if he does not improve his defense. Nonetheless, he has a good shot of being a top tier guy. Thank God he’s our franchise player and locked up for a long time—a good foundation. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 1
Randy Foye—Wow. What happened to Randy? He looks brutal coming off injury and I believe he will be turning 25 sometime next season. I don’t want to prematurely write him off because I certainly believe he deserves a fair shake, but, in reality, how high is his ceiling? The top 10 players at PG & SG respectively are Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups, Jose Calderon, Devon Haris and Kobe Bryant, D Wade, Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, Manu Ginobili, Michael Redd, Vince Carter, Richard Hamilton, Ray Allen, Joe Johnson. Can anyone confidently see him getting to the level of any of those guys? I don’t…I probably didn’t even when I was high on him. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 3
Rashad McCants—The amazing enigma. Rashad undoubtedly has the physical talent to be up there in that group of “Tier 2” SGs. But, does he have the head and defensive intensity? Will he get there with this coaching staff? I doubt it. Unfortunately, more than anyone on this roster save maybe Bassy, I could see McCants totally blowing up somewhere else. Nonetheless, Rashad with some ample development seems stuck at the “Tier 3” to “Tier 4 level” at best. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 3
Sebastian Telfair—Another enigma. You’ve got to hand it to Bassy for even being in this conversation. The kid has been playing very, very well as of late. He’s proven to be a fantastic floor general, a solid defender and a pretty good overall player. Unfortunately, he seems to be able to put the ball in the basket. This makes Bassy the hardest to grade IMO. With a jumpshot, Bassy certainly has “Tier 2” potential, but without one, he’s doomed to that “Tier 4” to “Tier 5” area. If I were the Wolves, I’d sign him this off-season and find out where he lands. If he blows up, fantastic. If he never learns to shoot, he’s a solid backup point. Projected 3 Year Status: N/A
Corey Brewer—I like Corey Brewer’s game. He’s certainly that gritty, team oriented glue guy that everyone of those top teams above has. But, is he a Raja Bell without a jumpshot or the next Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince? I have no idea. Either way, he’ll be a valuable piece to our future. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 1 to Tier 5…haha
1st Round Draft Choice 2008—When put into this perspective, perhaps the most important piece of our future is our 1st round choice from this year’s draft. Being that no one else on our roster will likely develop into that “Top Tier” partner with Big Al to put us into contention, we very likely need to a hit a home run this year and draft that guy. In doing this analysis, now, more than ever, am I leaning toward Beasley if he’s available. If not Beasley, I think you have to go with Rose, Jordan, Mayo or Greene. Guys like Lopez, Gordon, Hibbert, etc., while very good, will not, will not, will not be top tier players in the league. Unless you have the balls, foresight and patience to draft one of those decent kids and wait for Ricky Rubio, BJ Mullens, etc. in the 2009 draft, you have to go boom or bust in 2008.
So, essentially as it stands, for us to be a top team in the NBA, we have to hope for one of three scenarios:
Big Al plays D, our draft choice this year blows up into a top tier player, Bassy learns to shoot, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, Gomes stays, we get a few gritty, veterans and one of the better coaches in the league.
-or-
Big Al plays D, our draft choice this year blows up into a top tier player, Foye or McCants hits their ceiling, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, Gomes stays, we get a few gritty, veterans and one of the better coaches in the league.
-or-
Big Al doesn’t get injured, our draft choice this year is a top 10 player at his position, Foye or McCants hits their ceiling, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, we find a top 10 center and get Larry Brown to magically teach us a team concept that everyone buys into and develops incredible chemistry
Well...Not only is any of the above certain to happen, but it likely wouldn’t/won’t happen for several years down the road if it any of it ever does.
In sum, strap in your seat belts and put on your patience pants. It’s going to be a long fucking ride.
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