Evaluating the 2008 NBA Draft Class and the Potential Organizational Impact of Each Choice, Pt. 2

Prospects #2 & #3 happen to play the two positions Timberwolves fans see as the greatest places for improvement—PG & C. Someone explain this to McHale before he drafts Dan Coleman.

#2 Derrick Rose. 6’3’’ 195 lb. PG Memphis

Who is Derrick Rose really? To many he’s the next big-time PG—the third in the triumvirate of future all-world PG’s, joining Chris Paul and Deron Williams. To others, he’s an overrated waste of a pick that will likely never be a true point guard.

Why such a variance in opinion? Well, thus far this college season, Rose has been the equivalent of passing through Amsterdam’s red light district with your wallet still in your hotel room.

While Rose has shown increasing flashes of brilliance, he’s seemingly statistically unspectacular when compared to Chris Paul’s production in his Freshman year at Wake Forest. Let’s take a look at the stats:


NAME         FG%  FT%  3P%  PTS  REB AST TO  STL
Chris Paul   49.6 84.3 46.5 14.8 3.1 5.9 2.6 2.7
Derrick Rose 47.1 67.6 34.0 14.2 4.5 4.4 3.0 1.2



On paper, Paul was a better shooter, defender and passer. That’s damning evidence to most, and herein lies the problem for most Rose haters—Rose is not a Chris Paul or Deron Williams-type player. If you think this, you are completely misunderstanding him.

So, what is Rose in reality? His ceiling is somewhat of a poor man’s Wade in terms of scoring but with a much better ability to pass and run his team’s offense. If you’re hoping for a guy that will average 9-11 assists per game, Rose will probably never be that. But, if you want 5-7 a game and an ability to absolutely collapse defenses, then Rose is your man.

His size, ability to finish and general ability to be clutch leads to me to more of a Baron Davis comparison than anyone else (I’m shocked I’ve yet to see this comparison around)…just without the injury history. What team wouldn’t be elated with a healthy Baron Davis running their squad right now? Let’s compare Rose’s stats with Baron’s as Sophomore at UCLA:


NAME         FG%  FT%  3P%  PTS  REB AST TO  STL
Baron Davis  48.1 67.6 34.3 15.9 3.6 5.1 3.2 2.5
Derrick Rose 47.1 67.6 34.0 14.2 4.5 4.4 3.0 1.2

Rose, this year, is nearly statistically identical to Baron Davis in his sophomore year…other than steals and a few small bumps in PTS and ASTs. Now that’s impressive. And, with Rose’s recent improved play, who’s to say that those numbers won’t increase to better than Baron’s?

Oh yea, did I fail to mention that they’re nearly identical in size and Rose is even quite a bit more athletic? Would anyone like a younger, more athletic, far less injury prone Baron Davis on their team? I would….

So, where do we go as a squad if we select Rose? Well, as I showed with Beasley, unless we draft a Center, we’re going to have a complete roster log jam no matter what position we go with.

Now, obviously Rose is going to have to be your starting PG if you commit such a high pick to him on a young team. This bumps Bassy and Foye out of the starting PG position. Now, who would be a better fit at the 2-guard alongside Rose? Being that Rose likely won’t have great range from NBA 3 or at least will need to develop it over time, we’d want a good shooting 2 guard alongside Rose on the perimeter to stretch the defense. That immediately eliminates Brewer—that’s OK because I prefer him as our future 3 anyway. Foye’s outside shot certainly has improved, but to what degree? Unfortunately, we don’t know that yet. McCants is one of the top 3 point shooters in the league at the moment, but his defense is weak, and when coupled with Rose, that may leave us a bit weak in terms of perimeter defense. Still, he seems to be the best option we have and would do fine.

My solution for the team if we draft Rose is to sign-and-trade Bassy for a good-sized, young backup PF, let the Rhino walk, resign Gomes for a couple years, target Dorsey, Jawai or Hardin in the early 2nd round. This would leave us with the following lineup:

Rose/Foye
McCants/Foye
Gomes/Brewer/Walker
Jefferson/Bassy Sign-and-trade/Walker
Dorsey-Jawai-Hardin/Richard

That’s a pretty dynamic team overall, and one I’d be very happy with.

Unfortunately, everyone would have to realize that Rose isn’t going to take the NBA by storm right away. The kid isn’t even taking the college game by storm. So, it’s likely a 1 step backward for 2 steps forward type thing with Rose and a new, young center (actually, hopefully it’s 1 step backward for 19 steps forward type thing).

So, if you can’t tell, despite the fact that a Rose selections would make 3 selections of 6’4’’ guards in a row, I’d be very, very pleased with Derrick Rose in a Timberwolves uniform next year.

#3 DeAndre Jordan. 7’0’’ 250 lb. C Texas A&M

DeAndre Jordan brings boom or bust to a whole new level. If you actually haven’t done shit and are still projected as a top 3 pick a very, very deep draft, you have to be one hell of a physical specimen. And, DeAndre Jordan is just that.

Have you ever seen a 7 footer with superhuman strength and build do a dunk like this?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN2RoJD3dx8

That’s some crazy, crazy stuff. 7 footers that are that athletic don’t bust. They become Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler. Unfortunately, all of these players take years to develop and Jordan seems to be a lot more unpolished than any of those three, except maybe Chandler, at this stage of the game. Remember, it took Chandler 4-5 years before he looked decent. It seems funny now, but there was a point where he was considered a Kwame Brown/Michael Olowakandi type bust.

“Can we wait for this kid?” is the question. A major part of me thinks how can we not just put a player of his size and athletic ability next to big all and let him rebound and block shots by size alone? That would work wouldn’t it? Well, considering he’s only averaging 6.6 boards just over 1 shot block a game in college, that’s highly debatable. I honestly don’t know what his deal is. The 3 games I’ve watched Jordan, he’s had a several sprained ankle, so he didn’t show much.

The hard thing is if Jordan does become a Bynum or a Dwight Howard, he’d be the biggest impact of any of the potential draftees for this team and would be well worth the wait. A front court of Jefferson and Jordan could give us arguably the nastiest front court in the entire league and ensure us years upon years of success.

As for the ramifications of selecting Jordan, team-wise it’s an easy deal—just plug the kid in at center.

Telfair/Foye
McCants/Foye
Gomes/Brewer/Walker
Jefferson/Smith/Walker
Jordan/Richard

Not bad.