Shocking Stats! Or, Not Really....

Shocking stats!

Using the 82games.com player tandem feature, I noticed the following:

Foye's winning % with the following players: McCants (46%), Brewer (46%), Snyder (42%), Gomes (26%), Jaric (25%), Telfair (13%), Buckner 0%).

So, with McCants, Brewer and Snyder paired with Foye, we beat the other team's lineup nearly half of the time...pretty damn good for 18-4363 team.

Other notable stats:

* A Brewer-McCants tandem has a 56% win %
* The McCants-Snyder tandem has a 50% win %
* A Brewer-Snyder tandem has a 50% win %
* A Gomes-Snyder tandem has a 28% win %
* Chris Richard has a 54% overall win % (the only positive win % on the team)

So, let's think about what we see from this data...

The team is near a 50% winning % when Foye is paired with McCants and Brewer and suffer only a small drop-off when paired with Snyder.

The combo of Brewer and McCants beats the other team more often than not and the combos of McCants and Snyder and Brewer and Snyder split against the other team.

Statistically speaking, it would make sense then to have the 1/2/3 depth chart look like:

Foye
McCants/Snyder
Brewer/Snyder

...based on success.

Then, obviously you have Al at the 4 because Al is Al. And, noting that Chris Richard has the only positive win % on the team, why not start him at center?

That gives us constant lineup that split or defeat the opposition on average plus a dominant PF. Not bad, considering we're 18-6293 and Snyder's the old guy in that lineup at 24 or 25 years old.

Thinking about these stats, in the off-season one would be inclined to do the following (assuming we don't have a top 2 pick):

Draft a Brook Lopez, Hasheem Thabeet, JaVale McGee to rotate with Chris Richard at the center position...clearly Richard has a positive win % because he's the only true center on the roster...discussed ad nauseum.

Sign Craig Smith as a scoring PF off the bench for the 5-10 minutes Jefferson needs to sit a game. If he wants more money and/or PT than that, let him walk.

Same for Ryan Gomes.

Sign Bassy Telfair as decent PG of fthe bench for the 5-10 minutes Foye needs to sit a game. If he wants more money and/or PT than that, let him walk.

Trade Jaric for a sack of rocks.

Sign/draft 2nd players to replace any or all of Smith, Gomes and Telfair if they leave.



Hmmm...I kind of like the stats. Though my dream off-season would be a little different (Beasley, Rose, Mayo would be nice), I think the above makes sense.

Twins Pitching Surplus and Wittman is an idiot

Sure, there are many worries about our current MLB pitching staff and its depth and experience, but organizationally, we are out of control loaded.

From Gleeman today:

Assuming that Bass sticks as a long reliever, that leaves Nick Blackburn waiting to see whether Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano begin the season in the rotation. If Baker needs a stint on the disabled list or Liriano heads to Triple-A, Blackburn will slide into the rotation along with Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, and either Baker or Liriano. If both Baker and Liriano are ready, Blackburn will join Humber, Glen Perkins, Kevin Mulvey, and Brian Duensing in an amazing Rochester rotation.

Perkins, Blackburn and Humber should/could all be major league starter-worthy by mid-season. Mulvey probably too by then end of the year and Duensing is no slouch.

Plus, Swarzak, Mullins, Sosa and Pino are all in AA. Swarzak is nasty and should own his way to deserve a AAA promotion by mid-season.

Then, there’s always Robertson and Guerra…

Can we get a trade for all of Twins fans in the hood? How about an uber 3B or 2B prospect...
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My extensive analysis has turned to concise absurd annoyance with this team lately, namely because Wittman starts Marko Jaric and Kirk Snyder every damn game.

Just once...seriously just once...can we just see the damn lineup of:

Foye/McCants/Brewer-Gomes/Jefferson/Richard

...start the game or at least get some extensive PT together?

Is it really that hard? Is it that tough to give most every semi-knowledgeable fan their wish? Does everyone have to play out of position all of the time?

Yes, Snyder does bring good things to the table in terms of hustle and defense...but so does Corey Brewer. Plus, Brewer's a lot longer, quicker, more athletic, taller, a better defender, a better passer and has a much higher ceiling.

It still does not make sense for this team's long-term future to limit the minutes of McCants and Brewer in favor of Jaric and Snyder.

By starting Jaric, you greatly limit the minutes of McCants, take the ball out of Foye's hands in a lot of playmaking situations thus stunting his growth at running the show at the 1 and completely limit the chances of our apparent future back court of getting the chance to play together and develop chemistry.

By starting Snyder, you keep Brewer on the bench in favor of a guy who you already know what you have in. Brewer needs PT to develop, needs run defending the best guys in the league, aaaaand needs to develop a chemistry w/ Foye, McCants and Al if they're the future of this team.

But, Wittman thinks this isn't a good idea. He wants to win 5 extra games this year with Snyder and Jaric starting in order to not only set our future starting lineup back a few months in terms of developing a chemistry but by managing to greatly decrease our chances at a top pick as well. It's really a great strategy. Hats off to the genius.

Unless they have some magic deal with Stern that if they don't tank they'll get a top pick (no possible way...and if they did, Taylor's absurd KG comments probably ruined that deal anyway), we're pretty much operating the squad as stupidly as possible...(surprise, surprise) well, I guess we could always be adding Fatoine and Doleac to the mix.

Brewer's the future 3 for this team, and Snyder's a solid backup 2 and fill-in backup 3. Read my above post.

It only makes sense to start the pieces you drafted as the future starting lineup of this team together when the season is in the toilet.

Now, don't get me wrong, I like Kirk Snyder, but Kirk Snyder is Kirk Snyder. He's a 4th year player. He didn't come out of college young and raw. He's pretty much shown the same thing throughout his NBA career. I've always been a fan, and yes I've followed his game.

He is and should be a great backup 2/3 for this team.

Corey Brewer has a much higher ceiling. Brewer's potential is greater due to his solid bball IQ, greater height, length, speed and athleticism. THIS IS NOT MAGIC POTENTIAL. THESE ARE FACTS. The team owes it to their future to give him the run necessary to improve and adapt and eventually give a fair evaluation on the kid towards the end of next season and eventually at the All-star break of 09-10 season. How is that not reasonable?

Twins Charity Work

Let’s all congratulate the Twins on their fabulous charity work over the past several years—especially including their work with the Make a Wish Foundation in allowing Nick Punto to see his dream as a major league baseball player.

In all seriousness, is there a more ridiculous team in the league when it comes to keeping terrible players on the roster way, way, way after they should get the axe?

Denny Hocking, Dougie Baseball, Tony Batista, Lew Ford, Matt LeCroy, Juan Rincon...it's like a comedy act.

****

Here’s a scenario for all of you baseball minds. Let’s say you’re a GM/Manager and are forced to make mid-Spring training cuts. Which infielder do you cut?

Player A: 20 AB, .250 BA, .423 OBP, 6 R, 3 RBI, 0 HR, 4 SB, 3 E

Player B: 17 AB, .118 BA, .211 OBP, 1 R, 2 RBI, 0 HR, 1 SB, 1 E

Player C: 17 AB, .118 BA, .250 OBP, 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, 0 E

…Here’s some more info…let’s see if your decision changes:

Player A: 23-year-old, highly regarded prospect with major-league experience

Player B: 30-year-old, defensive master who shamed all of major league baseball with one of the most pathetic offensive seasons in history last year

Player C: 27-year-old, career minor leaguer that is really not impressive in any area.

What did the Twins do? The cut Player A (Casilla), and kept Players B & C (Nick Punto and Tommy Watkins).

I understand that Casilla wasn’t going to beat out Harris for the job and needs to play everyday and AAA Rochester is the best place for that. But, what a slap in the face to get cut this early in camp…especially considering the absurdity of the players around him.

I'll Take That With Mayo...

Here’s a serious post that’s going to upset a lot of people.

I’m a big fan of having a plan. That’s been perhaps the biggest issue with the front office of this organization—they haven’t seemed to have a plan.
Even the Wolves’ so-called “blueprint” now, isn’t exactly specific on what type of team they’re trying to establish and why.

Here’s a plan they can follow.

What was the only real team with success for the Wolves organization? The 2003-2004 Timberwolves. I, like many others, am confident that had Cassell maintained his health, that team would have won the title.

I have and continue to virtually guarantee that we do not end up with a top 2 pick. If we do, taking Beasley or Rose is a no brainer, and all of this can go in the trash. But, what do we do if we end up in that #3 - #6 range?

My selection would be to select 6’5’’ PG/SG O.J. Mayo out of USC.

Why? Because, in my opinion, selecting Mayo fits in in creating an outline of a team similar in structure to our team that had success—the 03-04 team

Pickup DeSagna Diop, Hasheem Thabeet, JaVale McGee or Patrick O’Bryant, all possible options with creativity, and we have the following depth chart:

Foye/Mayo
Mayo/McCants
Brewer/Gomes
Jefferson/Smith
Diop-Thabeet-O’Bryant/Hardin-Dorsey/Richard

Let's, in principle, analyze that starting lineup of our 2003-2004 team in terms of strengths and intangibles.

2003-2004 Team:

Sam Cassel was vet PG. He was a winner. He scored 20ppg. He had balls of steal in the 4th quarter. He had a money jump shot. He was a complete defensive liability.

Latrell Sprewell was vet SG. He was a winner. He scored 17ppg. He was a solid, smart defender. A general heady player, but was a bit of an attitude liability.

Trenton Hassell was a SF. He was limited in his scoring ability thus making him a offensive liability. He was a fantastic perimeter defender and could be trusted to guard the other team's best 2 or 3. He was a strong hustle player and often made plays that did not show up in the box score.

KG was an MVP PF. He was dominant post scorer averaging 24 ppg on a variety of post moves. He also was a premier rebounder in the league averaging nearly 14 rpg. KG was a 1st-team defender.

Ervin Johnson was a vet C. He was a solid dirty work player. He played decent defensive and contributed very little on offense

2008-2009 Team:

Randy Foye is young PG. He has a history of winning. He is seemingly a dangerous scoring threat that specializes in 4th quarter scoring. He brings average defense to the table.

OJ Mayo is young SG/PG. He is a seemingly dangerous scoring threat. He has the ability to be a very solid, smart defender. Some worry about potential attitude issues.

Corey Brewer is a young SF. He has a history of winning. Thus far, he shows limited scoring ability. He shows promise to be a fantastic perimeter defender and could be trusted to guard the other team's best 2 or 3. He is a strong hustle player and often makes great plays that do not show up in the box score.

Al Jefferson is a premier young PF. He is a dominant post scorer averaging 21 ppg on a variety of post moves. He also was a premier rebounder in the league averaging nearly 12 rpg. Jefferson is somewhat of a defensive liability but is showing improvement. Should be average soon.

Patrick O'Bryant/Hasheem Thabeet/Dasagna Diop is a young C. He shows promise to be a nasty defensive shot-blocker and rebounder. He will likely be a mediocre threat on the offensive end.

Comparison on offense:

Foye and Jefferson could seemingly be the dangerous pick-and-roll combination that Sam and KG were. Sam and KG had a better veteran-based sync on the court, but Foye and Jefferson and better 1 on 1 scorers. Given a year of chemistry, the two young players could be as dangerous as the Wolves first nasty pick-ans-roll duo.

The scoring threat that is O.J. Mayo could certainly match or exceed the declining Spree we saw in 03-04. In fact, by the end of Mayo's 2nd season, he may be pretty much what Spree was--capable of dropping anywhere between 10-40 points on a variety of slashes to the basket and long-range shots. O.J. is also valuable for his ability to play the PG position.

Brewer and Trenton Hassell are somewhat similar threats on offense. We'd like to hope Brewer will develop into a more dangerous offensive player than Trenton by the end of next season.

O'Bryan and Erv are/were similarly relative non-factors on offense, getting most of their points of put-backs and open shots due to double teams.

Comparison on Defense:

Both teams have/had the luxury of having a premier perimeter defender in Hassell and Brewer, respectively. One can only hope that with each go-around of the NBA and each off-season to workout, Brewer further solidifies himself as shutdown-type guy.
O.J. Mayo and Sprewell are virtually the same size, equally smart/crafty and should be able to contribute about the same defensively. Obviously, Sprewell had the great advantage of major NBA experience in 03-04, but Mayo certainly has more athleticism than an aging Spree.

The key here for the 08-09 team would be to have Jefferson shore up his defense enough to be about as solid as Erv was and for a Patrick O'Bryant or a Hasheem Thabeet or a DeSagna Diop to provide a similar shot-blocking, in-the-paint defensive presence as Garnett.

Bench:

A bench of McCants, Gomes, Smith and hopefully Hardin/Dorsey is more threatening than Hudson, Wally, AC, Madsen and Kandi and works better in the flow of the team concept.

Coaching:

Flip >>> Witless. Shit.

Intangibles:

The beauty of the 03-04 team was that in close games, the Wolves always won. Cassell and Spree actually had ice in their veins and refused to lose.

Foye and Jefferson have shown good to great ability to close out games, and it seems that O.J. Mayo has a similar killer instinct.

Cassell also had the ability to run an offense as a PG and certainly did so better than Foye and/or Mayo are capable. One can only hope that this gap could be surmounted by Foye’s increasing play-making ability, Mayo’s excellent play-making ability and point-guard skills and a dominant pick-and-roll-based offense.
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So, is this team going to be the 03-04 Timberwolves. No. But, do we at least have the pieces together to bring out a team that follows a blueprint of tested success? Yes.

Sure, we lack experience, and guile, but we may be able to make up for it with athleticism and greater bench depth.

I’m not sure, but I’m willing to give it a try.

Portland Game Last Night

I didn't catch any of last night's game, but I had a chance to look at the box score.

As I've always stated, I like to draw my opinions from actually watching the game, but last night a certain something stood out.

We lost to the Blazers by seven points, shot a higher percentage on more shot attempts than Portland, had the same amount of steals, more assists and had just three fewer rebounds than their team.

Now, we did have 5 more turnovers than Portland, which could certainly account for 7 points or so, but the big key is that we shot 17 less free throws—including 0 free throw attempts from both Foye and Jefferson.

Now, some have pointed out the great foul disparity between the Wolves and Trailblazers. Sure, our defense needs work, but I’m not really that upset about giving up around 20 free throw attempts to an NBA team.

What is annoying is that Foye and Jefferson never got to the line the entire game.
I’m not sure where the lapse is, but this tells me that the coaching staff just does not get it. Here we have a very good slasher and a premier post player and neither get to the line at all. That’s a very, very poor offense concept.

I’ll tell you one thing, I bet they never ran the pick-and-roll last night. If they did, it was only a few times. Unless Foye and Jefferson have the basketball IQ of 4th graders (they don’t), they know how to run the pick-and-roll.

Let’s see here, no one will be able to guard them, it’ll open up shots all around the court for everyone else, they’ll get free baskets at the line…no that’s not a plan I want to use.

Even if it was in the plan, Wittman then needs to call a timeout and say, “Get to the damn free throw line. You are not playing basketball at the YMCA.” Maybe he needs to slap a bitch.

Whatever the cause, this type of performance should be unacceptable. Wittman needs to establish punishments for not getting to the line. If Al and Foye do not attempt at least 6 free throw attempts a piece in a given game, Al has to share a bed with Mark Madsen for the next road game and Foye is banned from saying leadership clichés to the media for 2 weeks. If Rashad and Brewer do not attempt at least 4 free throw attempts a piece in a given game, Rashad has to give up Haiku for a week and Brewer has to eat a whole ham (win-win for Brewer).

WTF!

ESPN IS GARBAGE.

I actually cannot believe this.

So, I was reading the article of ESPN's top SG's of All-Time...which can be found here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-GreatestSGs

Upon looking at the voting, I saw the following:

NOTICE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA!

Who voted for Vince Carter as a top 10 SG of ALL-TIME!?! A TOP 10 SG OF ALL-TIME!!!

ARE YOU SERIOUS!

This person or persons need to claim responsibility of these actions. I actually cannot believe this.

This is what I'd expect from the trolls on Rube Chat. What are the odds that this person would vote for the Kandi-Man as a top 3 historical Wolves player?

No comedy this time folks. I'm in too much shock.

Wolves Backcourt: The Time is Now...Is Slowey Insane?

Like most of us sleaze bags who hoped to hook up with Britney Spears, the time is now for the Timberwolves.

The time is now? What does that mean? Well, Bassy Telfair’s injury, though a bit unfortunate, may finally have open up the scenario we all wanted to see from the very beginning of the season—the trifecta of Foye/McCants/Jefferson all on the court and hopefully giving defenses headaches.

Before anyone begins to whine about letting Beno go (garbage take Doogie) or go on suicide watch if we don’t select Derek Rose, OJ Mayo, Jerryd Bayless or Eric Gordon, sit down for a second, take a few deep breaths and let’s see what these three can make of themselves.

These three literally mean everything for the immediate future of this franchise. If they succeed, they’re the pieces we build around. If the fail, they’re trading pieces we use to go in another direction.

Now, last night a magical thing developed in the 2nd half—Foye and Al were nasty on the pick-and-roll. Anyone familiar with my posts on the KFAN message board know that I have been clamoring for this duo to take advantage of this scheme more often than Rosie O’Donnell has to change her pants.

If Jefferson can go to the gym and develop a consistent 15 footer a la Amare this past off-season, this duo could be as tough to stop as Bret Michaels at a sorority party. Given space, both are nearly unstoppable going to the hoop, will get to the line constantly and create a town of easy points. If you shy off them, it’s basically giving them a wide open free throw.

Now, if help defenders collapse in, Rashad is wide open for three or can slash the baseline. This is nice because it makes his primary objective to score and/or to occasional dish underneath the basket…plus who else would you want to shoot wide open threes on this team?

Put a nasty rebounder for a perimeter player on the weakside wing like Brewer (a 15 foot shot for him wouldn’t hurt either) and all you need is a tall, long, defending interior player on the weakside block looking to grab offensive rebounds and make a few putbacks. Mix in a little experience and you have what would appear to be a nice formula for success.

Is any of this automatic? Without a doubt, no. But, before everyone goes whining about backcourt players we gave up or backcourt players we could acquire, let’s have the patience to watch the backcourt of high-powered, high-potential lottery picks finally get to play together healthy, seasoned and in the regular season before we jump to any conclusions.

If you think you know anything with certainty about Foye/McCants/Jefferson, you don’t. Shaddup, and let’s hope we something special start to come into fruition.

********

Today's Twins note:

Is Slowey actually crazy or did this never happen? I received this email from a trustable friend:

There is a story going on the espn message boards about Kevin Slowey.

Essentially, at the end of practice Slowey walked by some kids watching ST and said to one, “Hey, nice shoes. Want to trade?” And of course the kid’s all “SURE!” and gives him his shoes. So Slowey takes them and runs, goes into the restricted area/clubhouse/dugout whatever. Kid waits - 2, 5, 10, 15, 20 minutes, then he’s all teary “Grandma - he took my shoes!” They had to wait around until someone came out and would go in and get the kid’s shoes back.

The next day the kid’s by the fence and Slowey walks onto the field, sees him and yells “Hey kid - find your shoes?” and laughs, keeps going.

What does this even mean? Is Slowey an actual lunatic? Was this taken out of context? Did this even happen? WTF!

Random Wolves Thoughts + Twins Observation

So, I’ve been kind of slow updating the ol’ blog, but can you blame me? What can be said with trade deadline being over and the Wolves making this season of Rock of Love look like No Country for Old Men? At least March Madness is coming around the corner, so I can my fix of gambling, drinking, basketball ranting and meth smoking (what?...that's a joke ladies...)

Instead of a full blog, here are my random Wolves comments over the past week and a half:

1) Kirk Snyder is a good glue/9th player off of the bench. I’d be happy keeping him around but not at the expense of major minutes being taken away from McCant, as was the case last night against Utah. Speaking of Meth, what is Wittman thinking here? Sure, McCants was playing like an ass, but let’s get serious, McCants means a lot more to this franchise whether he booms or busts. McHale should step up and explain to Wittman that the "lesson teaching" for the year is over, and it's organizational evaluation time. I'm positive Wittman would run a McDonald's into the ground if he was managing...

2) Telfair needs to get serious with his shot this off-season. I’m to the point where he’s won me over, I appreciate his play-making ability, speed and defense, but now he has to take it to the next level by putting the ball in the hole for me to truly respect him as a player. The 3 foot layup that barely hit rim last night was even more awkward than Brad Childress reading Green Eggs and Ham in the NFL Cares program...or whatever their version is...

3) I’ve got to say, it’s really nice not having Antoine Walker on the court. As I said in the beginning of the year, I’m a pure young-players-only guy for the franchise at this point in its development. I was happy with Antoine’s better-than-expected behavior for the first part of the year, but now that Foye’s back and serious decisions need to be made in upcoming months, I’m happy that Fatty is nowhere to be found.

4) If any team wants Marko for anything other than a worse contract, he’s got to go. It’s just annoying seeing him on the court when we could be evaluating Foye, McCants, Brewer and Telfair.

5) Richard is going to need at least a full year of 10+ minutes per game next year for us to even see what we could have with him. I’m not sure he’ll get that fair opportunity...

6) Last night’s game against the Jazz was the first game I turned a Wolves game off in the first not due to obligation since 2006 or so…I had a much better time unloading my dishwasher and using the broom on the broken vodka bottle behind my bar...

7) Everyone pray Wittman takes the Hoosier’s job…win-win...or win-win-win-win situation...

8) I’m still confident Brewer will be a solid starter at the 3 in this league…at least...

9) Can this draft’s strengths match up worse with our roster? Tough decisions will have to be made no matter who we draft…

I’m not going to lie—-last night’s game was unbearable and my interest is waning considerably. Though I’ll still continue to evaluate the young guards and the upcoming draft class, I wouldn’t expect too many meaningful Wolves contributions on my part until pre-draft workouts.

For now, I’m mostly interested in the Twins….

…which leads me to this—Is there anyone in MLB that has a better chance to replace Manny Ramirez as baseball’s King of Unintentional Comedy than our very own CARLOS GOMEZ?

Check out some recent quotes from Gomez in Pioneer Press:

“Gomez has had a bounce in his step since he arrived in Fort Myers. A key figure in the Johan Santana trade, he is convinced he is about to become an impact player with the Twins.
"Sure!" he said the other day. "They don't have no speed like me. I know I can help this team. Especially when I hit ahead of Morneau and the catcher and the other guy."
……….
Carlos Gomez was asked if he thought it would be difficult to play center field in the quirky Metrodome.
"If Torii Hunter can catch the ball there, why can't I catch it there?" he said matter-of-factly.
………..
"My dad was fast," Gomez said. "When I was a kid and I worked out with my older friends, they all worked out so hard for their running. I do nothing. They say, 'Why are you so fast when you
don't do nothing?' I tell them that my dad was fast."

One of the reporters needs to man up and get some classic quotes from Gomez about Denard Span and anything else in the world before Gardy makes him shut his mouth. I’m loving this guy right now.



King of Comedy?