Monday, May 5, 2008

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Shocking Stats! Or, Not Really....

Shocking stats!

Using the player tandem feature, I noticed the following:

Foye's winning % with the following players: McCants (46%), Brewer (46%), Snyder (42%), Gomes (26%), Jaric (25%), Telfair (13%), Buckner 0%).

So, with McCants, Brewer and Snyder paired with Foye, we beat the other team's lineup nearly half of the time...pretty damn good for 18-4363 team.

Other notable stats:

* A Brewer-McCants tandem has a 56% win %
* The McCants-Snyder tandem has a 50% win %
* A Brewer-Snyder tandem has a 50% win %
* A Gomes-Snyder tandem has a 28% win %
* Chris Richard has a 54% overall win % (the only positive win % on the team)

So, let's think about what we see from this data...

The team is near a 50% winning % when Foye is paired with McCants and Brewer and suffer only a small drop-off when paired with Snyder.

The combo of Brewer and McCants beats the other team more often than not and the combos of McCants and Snyder and Brewer and Snyder split against the other team.

Statistically speaking, it would make sense then to have the 1/2/3 depth chart look like:


...based on success.

Then, obviously you have Al at the 4 because Al is Al. And, noting that Chris Richard has the only positive win % on the team, why not start him at center?

That gives us constant lineup that split or defeat the opposition on average plus a dominant PF. Not bad, considering we're 18-6293 and Snyder's the old guy in that lineup at 24 or 25 years old.

Thinking about these stats, in the off-season one would be inclined to do the following (assuming we don't have a top 2 pick):

Draft a Brook Lopez, Hasheem Thabeet, JaVale McGee to rotate with Chris Richard at the center position...clearly Richard has a positive win % because he's the only true center on the roster...discussed ad nauseum.

Sign Craig Smith as a scoring PF off the bench for the 5-10 minutes Jefferson needs to sit a game. If he wants more money and/or PT than that, let him walk.

Same for Ryan Gomes.

Sign Bassy Telfair as decent PG of fthe bench for the 5-10 minutes Foye needs to sit a game. If he wants more money and/or PT than that, let him walk.

Trade Jaric for a sack of rocks.

Sign/draft 2nd players to replace any or all of Smith, Gomes and Telfair if they leave.

Hmmm...I kind of like the stats. Though my dream off-season would be a little different (Beasley, Rose, Mayo would be nice), I think the above makes sense.

Twins Pitching Surplus and Wittman is an idiot

Sure, there are many worries about our current MLB pitching staff and its depth and experience, but organizationally, we are out of control loaded.

From Gleeman today:

Assuming that Bass sticks as a long reliever, that leaves Nick Blackburn waiting to see whether Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano begin the season in the rotation. If Baker needs a stint on the disabled list or Liriano heads to Triple-A, Blackburn will slide into the rotation along with Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, and either Baker or Liriano. If both Baker and Liriano are ready, Blackburn will join Humber, Glen Perkins, Kevin Mulvey, and Brian Duensing in an amazing Rochester rotation.

Perkins, Blackburn and Humber should/could all be major league starter-worthy by mid-season. Mulvey probably too by then end of the year and Duensing is no slouch.

Plus, Swarzak, Mullins, Sosa and Pino are all in AA. Swarzak is nasty and should own his way to deserve a AAA promotion by mid-season.

Then, there’s always Robertson and Guerra…

Can we get a trade for all of Twins fans in the hood? How about an uber 3B or 2B prospect...
My extensive analysis has turned to concise absurd annoyance with this team lately, namely because Wittman starts Marko Jaric and Kirk Snyder every damn game.

Just once...seriously just once...can we just see the damn lineup of:


...start the game or at least get some extensive PT together?

Is it really that hard? Is it that tough to give most every semi-knowledgeable fan their wish? Does everyone have to play out of position all of the time?

Yes, Snyder does bring good things to the table in terms of hustle and defense...but so does Corey Brewer. Plus, Brewer's a lot longer, quicker, more athletic, taller, a better defender, a better passer and has a much higher ceiling.

It still does not make sense for this team's long-term future to limit the minutes of McCants and Brewer in favor of Jaric and Snyder.

By starting Jaric, you greatly limit the minutes of McCants, take the ball out of Foye's hands in a lot of playmaking situations thus stunting his growth at running the show at the 1 and completely limit the chances of our apparent future back court of getting the chance to play together and develop chemistry.

By starting Snyder, you keep Brewer on the bench in favor of a guy who you already know what you have in. Brewer needs PT to develop, needs run defending the best guys in the league, aaaaand needs to develop a chemistry w/ Foye, McCants and Al if they're the future of this team.

But, Wittman thinks this isn't a good idea. He wants to win 5 extra games this year with Snyder and Jaric starting in order to not only set our future starting lineup back a few months in terms of developing a chemistry but by managing to greatly decrease our chances at a top pick as well. It's really a great strategy. Hats off to the genius.

Unless they have some magic deal with Stern that if they don't tank they'll get a top pick (no possible way...and if they did, Taylor's absurd KG comments probably ruined that deal anyway), we're pretty much operating the squad as stupidly as possible...(surprise, surprise) well, I guess we could always be adding Fatoine and Doleac to the mix.

Brewer's the future 3 for this team, and Snyder's a solid backup 2 and fill-in backup 3. Read my above post.

It only makes sense to start the pieces you drafted as the future starting lineup of this team together when the season is in the toilet.

Now, don't get me wrong, I like Kirk Snyder, but Kirk Snyder is Kirk Snyder. He's a 4th year player. He didn't come out of college young and raw. He's pretty much shown the same thing throughout his NBA career. I've always been a fan, and yes I've followed his game.

He is and should be a great backup 2/3 for this team.

Corey Brewer has a much higher ceiling. Brewer's potential is greater due to his solid bball IQ, greater height, length, speed and athleticism. THIS IS NOT MAGIC POTENTIAL. THESE ARE FACTS. The team owes it to their future to give him the run necessary to improve and adapt and eventually give a fair evaluation on the kid towards the end of next season and eventually at the All-star break of 09-10 season. How is that not reasonable?

Friday, March 14, 2008

Twins Charity Work

Let’s all congratulate the Twins on their fabulous charity work over the past several years—especially including their work with the Make a Wish Foundation in allowing Nick Punto to see his dream as a major league baseball player.

In all seriousness, is there a more ridiculous team in the league when it comes to keeping terrible players on the roster way, way, way after they should get the axe?

Denny Hocking, Dougie Baseball, Tony Batista, Lew Ford, Matt LeCroy, Juan's like a comedy act.


Here’s a scenario for all of you baseball minds. Let’s say you’re a GM/Manager and are forced to make mid-Spring training cuts. Which infielder do you cut?

Player A: 20 AB, .250 BA, .423 OBP, 6 R, 3 RBI, 0 HR, 4 SB, 3 E

Player B: 17 AB, .118 BA, .211 OBP, 1 R, 2 RBI, 0 HR, 1 SB, 1 E

Player C: 17 AB, .118 BA, .250 OBP, 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 HR, 0 SB, 0 E

…Here’s some more info…let’s see if your decision changes:

Player A: 23-year-old, highly regarded prospect with major-league experience

Player B: 30-year-old, defensive master who shamed all of major league baseball with one of the most pathetic offensive seasons in history last year

Player C: 27-year-old, career minor leaguer that is really not impressive in any area.

What did the Twins do? The cut Player A (Casilla), and kept Players B & C (Nick Punto and Tommy Watkins).

I understand that Casilla wasn’t going to beat out Harris for the job and needs to play everyday and AAA Rochester is the best place for that. But, what a slap in the face to get cut this early in camp…especially considering the absurdity of the players around him.