Much like a school course, all young players should be given a period of time to learn/adapt to the NBA game, and then once that evaluation period is up, you decide whether they have get a passor fail for the course.
The key with a young developing team is deciding what level to realistically evaluate each young player (the course level, usually decided at draft time) and how long the evaluation period should last.
In scouring various Wolves message boards across the net and taking part in the occasional Wolves conversation with the casual fan, I’ve recently been reminded of the amazing lack of patience and absurdly high expectations most people have for our young players.
Here’s how I think we should be evaluating all of our young guys and when the fair time of coming to a final conclusion for that player should be:
Player: Ryan Gomes
Course: Role-Playing, Do-It-All SF/PF 101
Considering Gomes was a 2nd round pick. Gomes has already passed his course with flying colors. In fact, he’s maybe done too well. With Gomes’s contract being up this year, many teams may be apt to give Gomes big dollars to enroll in Average NBA Starting SF Studies 201. Though I like Gomes’ game, he did not show enough in Role-Playing, Do-It-All SF/PF 101 to make him worth the investment in Average NBA Starting SF Studies 101. I believe he would get a D or even fail this course. If we can lock him up at a reasonable amount to study Great Locker Room Clutch Veteran Bench Player Research 201 (aka Big Shot Bob Studies), I’d be all for keeping him on the roster.
- Final Evaluation Date: End of 2007-2008 Season
Player: Rashad McCants
Course: Perimeter Offensive Juggernaut 101
Rashad McCants has had an interesting starting course so far. At times, he’s shown glimpses of being a top-flight student. At times, he’s been a miserable failure. Normally, he’d be at or past his final evaluation period, but after missing the entire season last year due to most devastating knee injury in the game, Rashad gets some extra time. Rashad has seemingly had better success in the course lately as a 6th man offensive spark. Only time will tell if this will allow him to get an A or B in the course, or if he’ll be forced to leave the Wolves and enroll in Possibly Psychotic Physical Specimen 102. This is an odd course because it either leads to Ron Artest Studies 201 or How Not To Blow All of Your Money In Europe 202.
- Final Evaluation Date: It’ll be interesting to see how Rashad continues as an offensive spark plug off of the bench, has a full off-season of working on his game finally rather than trying to come back from injury and then gels with his teammates for 2008-2009. All-Star Break of 2008-2009 season should be his “do we keep him or trade him” time.
Player: Randy Foye
Course: Franchise Guard Play 101
Randy Foye is perhaps the reason I wrote this article. Randy Foye took a step in the right direction in his rookie season, possibly looking to pass the course with a B or possibly an A. Unfortunately, he then suffered a disastrous knee injury of which forced him to miss nearly 2/3 of the 2007-2008 NBA season. The Randy we see now is hobbled, out of shape and out of sync with his teammates. Yet, to be fair, this is not the real Randy Foye. Then again, he’s nearing 25 years-old and how much time do we really have to devote to Foye?
- Final Evaluation Date: Foye certainly deserves the rest of the year, and throughout Foye’s career, he’s been a “comeback from nothing” type player. Randy certainly deserves a full off-season of training and some time to make a statement next year. All-Star Break of 2008-2009 season should be his “do we keep him or trade him” time.
Player: Al Jefferson
Course: Franchise Post Play 101
Passed with flying colors. Starting in 2007-2008, Al will enroll in Icon Establishment Studies 301.
- Final Evaluation Date: End of 2010-2011 season…or possibly soon should he test out of the course.
Player: Sebastian Telfair
Course: NBA-level guard Play 102
After failing Franchise Point Guard Play 101 miserably, Bassy was enrolled in a much more basic course…and even then he was expected to fail. Thankfully, Bassy has taken his studies seriously and become a top student in the class. Unless the Wolves decided to give a player such as Derrick Rose the opportunity to enroll in Franchise Point Guard Play 101, the organization should sign Bassy for 3-4 years and enroll him in Average NBA Starting PG Studies 201. If he tests out that, he could possibly be given a second opportunity at Franchise Point Guard Play 101.
- Final Evaluation Date: Already passed. Hopefully, Wolves enroll him in Average NBA Starting PG Studies 201 starting in the 2008-2009 season.
Player: Corey Brewer
Course: Scottie Pippen Studies 101
Another player for whom this entry was written, Corey Brewer has all of the pieces for success in this league. Scottie Pippen Studies 101 is an interesting course because, unlike other courses, those getting a “C” in the class are even very valuable for top teams just because the basic requirements for entering the course weed out 99% of players.
- Final Evaluation Date: Being young and skinny yet showing promise in his studies and having a reputation as a strong worker, Corey certainly deserves the off-season, the next full season, the following off-season and then part of the next year before a proper final evaluation can take place. All-Star Break of 2009-2010 season should be his “do we keep him or trade him” time (see Josh Howard’s timeline with next year for Brewer matching up with Howard’s rookie season).
Player: Chris Richard
Course: Interior Beast 101
Confusingly for many fans, Chris Richard gets an incomplete in this course thus far. Though Richard has shown the occasional strong sign in his studies, he mostly been barred from class. Hopefully, his attendance increases dramatically next season.
- Final Evaluation Date: Unknown
Friday, February 22, 2008
Friday, February 15, 2008
How To Build a Contender (Please Forward to McHale, Stack, Hobierg...)
“I know the pieces fit because I watched them fall away” – Maynard James Keenan
I’m a huge baseball, football and basketball fan. One of the nice things about being an NBA basketball fan is that if you watch a decent amount of NBA and college games and have a good understanding of how the game works, how different players fit together and access to a web-based trade machine, you can do a decent job at playing GM. This is especially nice if you’re an ENTJ personality like myself (control freak).
Baseball and its 5 league minor league system (upper and lower A for the casual fan), foreign camps, goofy arbitration rules, 40-man rosters, lengthy player development periods, etc. makes playing the GM a lot, lot harder. And, I’m not even going to get into the NFL and its huge rosters, practice squads, non-guaranteed contracts, player tags etc., etc. Playing GM can still be done with each sport, but to be done well and with a solid knowledge base would involve a borderline-psychotic obsession and/or a lack of a job.
As my last blog entry states, the top contenders in the NBA have at least two (2) top 5 players in the NBA at their respective positions, one (1) more top 10 player at his respective position, a strong mix of role players and an excellent coaching staff.
The current Wolves squad meets about as many of those requirements as Gerald Green does to get into Stanford. But, unlike Green, we’re moving in the right direction being that we have a solid base (Al Jefferson) and some decent young players with potential. Nonetheless, if you’re expecting this team to be a top 10-15 NBA team at the end of next year or sooner, you’re nuts.
Below, I’ve outlined what the makeup of our squad would likely need to be for us to become a contending team in reality. This lineup takes in the realistic value of each respective player over the next 1-3 years. There are few things to note—AANS stands for above-average NBA starter. See my chart in my last entry if you’re unsure of what type of quality player that calls for (i.e. not likely Foye, Telfair or McCants). Also, keep in mind to keep up with the current NBA title contenders, at least one of those AANSs would have to be a top 5 player at his respective position and another should be a top 10 player at his respective position. Here’s how our lineup would have to be to contend:
C: AANS/Richard
PF: Jefferson/
SF: Brewer/Gomes
SG: AANS/Foye-McCants
PG: AANS/Telfair
So, we essentially have 2-3 years to land a top 5 PG, SG/SF or C, a top 10 PG, SG/SF or C and a top 25 PG, SG/SF or C.
Well, how the hell do we do that? First of all, we’re not going to land one of these players via free agency, so we can cross that option (if you think so, get serious). Let me see, how else do we acquire key players? Let me grab Shooter’s guide…ok free agents, via trade or via draft.
While trades are always an interesting way to acquire talent, I’d rather focus on the draft. For one, it’s a better way to build teams that are strong for a number of years, and as the top teams prove, it’s just a better way to build teams in general. Of the top 6 NBA juggernauts that I mentioned and their fifteen (15) top 10 players at their respective positions, 8 were drafted and developed by their respective teams. All six teams had at least one (1) player they drafted among those top players.
A lot of people seem worried about getting a top 2 draft pick in this year’s draft. While this certainly would be appealing and Beasley and Rose do seemingly have the greatest star potential, let’s take a look at the draft position of the top 25 players in order: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 13, 15, 29, 35, 57.
As you can see, half of these players were drafted in the top 4, which is somewhat obvious, and the rest are scattered in the mid-lottery and a couple in the 2nd round. So, some of it is just drafting smarter/better than the other team (a lot of the late round seletions are taking risk on high schoolers i.e. Kobe, TMac and Euro players i.e. Parker, Ginobilil)…and a lot of it is landing a top 4 pick and increasing your chances of drafting a big time player.
So, if we draft incredibly smart, go big or go home (Beasley, Rose, Greene, Jordan, Mayo) and our risk happens to pan out, we’re still a top 5 or 10 tier player and another AANS away from contending. How do we get these pieces in 2009?
Well unfortunately, the best way is to not sign Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith. This will obviously upset a lot of people because these are likeable, solid young players. Unfortunately, none of them have AANS potential, so they won’t be intricate in helping us contend in the long run. Also unfortunately, they are good enough in the short term to win us enough games and prevent us from landing that top 4 pick thus greatly decreasing our chances at landing that top 5 or 10 tier player that we need. Though nice players, when the times comes to rise into contention, players of the Telfair/Gomes/Smith caliber can be had for a minimal price.
So, next year you start Foye/McCants/Brewer/Jefferson/Richard. Since all of our “go big or go home” draft choices are Freshman in college this year, you give the pick the normal 19 year-old treatment and slowly bring them off of the bench. This strategy does 2 main things:
- It allows Foye and McCants the opportunity to possibly be that 3rd AANS player…which is their ceiling. If they develop into it, great. If they don’t, you know what you have and move on. If they end up somewhere in between, they have enough trade value to move.
- It allows this team to lose enough games to have a great shot at another top 4 pick in the 2009 draft
Fantastic, so if everything goes well, in 2010 you have a lineup of AANS (top 5 in the making-2008 or 2009 draft), AANS (top 10 in the making-2008 or 2009 draft), Al Jefferson (should be top 5 by 2010), Brewer (the ultimate glue guy), Foye-McCants (average or slightly above average NBA starter).
If I had a magic wand and could do anything I wanted, in 2010 we could have a lineup of:
Rubio/Foye/Brewer/Jefferson/Jordan
Rubio/Foye/Brewer/Beasley/Jefferson
Rose/McCants/Brewer/Jefferson/BJ Mullens
Mayo/Foye/Brewer/Jefferson/BJ Mullens
Rubio/Mayo/Brewer/Jefferson/Darko (trade Foye or McCants to Memphis)
Etc., etc. etc.
How much better lineups are these than the likely:
Telfair/Foye/Gomes/Beasley/Jefferson
Rose/Foye/Gomes/Jefferson/Richard
…or…even scarier….
Telfair/Jaric/Gomes/Jefferson/Richard
…with McCants, Foye, Brewer and Beasley/Rose coming off of the bench…
Still, with the above "contending" teams, you're still another 1-3 years of coming together to win a title, and you have to make sure you the cap space to all lock them up for a good amount of team. But, nonetheless, it's still worth the risk (see losing in the first round 8 years in a row).
Folks, as you can see, you create a contender not by locking up below average NBA starters to long contracts (see Jaric, Hassell, Hudson, etc.).
You create an NBA contender by having patience and taking big-time risks on big-time players.
I’m a huge baseball, football and basketball fan. One of the nice things about being an NBA basketball fan is that if you watch a decent amount of NBA and college games and have a good understanding of how the game works, how different players fit together and access to a web-based trade machine, you can do a decent job at playing GM. This is especially nice if you’re an ENTJ personality like myself (control freak).
Baseball and its 5 league minor league system (upper and lower A for the casual fan), foreign camps, goofy arbitration rules, 40-man rosters, lengthy player development periods, etc. makes playing the GM a lot, lot harder. And, I’m not even going to get into the NFL and its huge rosters, practice squads, non-guaranteed contracts, player tags etc., etc. Playing GM can still be done with each sport, but to be done well and with a solid knowledge base would involve a borderline-psychotic obsession and/or a lack of a job.
As my last blog entry states, the top contenders in the NBA have at least two (2) top 5 players in the NBA at their respective positions, one (1) more top 10 player at his respective position, a strong mix of role players and an excellent coaching staff.
The current Wolves squad meets about as many of those requirements as Gerald Green does to get into Stanford. But, unlike Green, we’re moving in the right direction being that we have a solid base (Al Jefferson) and some decent young players with potential. Nonetheless, if you’re expecting this team to be a top 10-15 NBA team at the end of next year or sooner, you’re nuts.
Below, I’ve outlined what the makeup of our squad would likely need to be for us to become a contending team in reality. This lineup takes in the realistic value of each respective player over the next 1-3 years. There are few things to note—AANS stands for above-average NBA starter. See my chart in my last entry if you’re unsure of what type of quality player that calls for (i.e. not likely Foye, Telfair or McCants). Also, keep in mind to keep up with the current NBA title contenders, at least one of those AANSs would have to be a top 5 player at his respective position and another should be a top 10 player at his respective position. Here’s how our lineup would have to be to contend:
C: AANS/Richard
PF: Jefferson/
SF: Brewer/Gomes
SG: AANS/Foye-McCants
PG: AANS/Telfair
So, we essentially have 2-3 years to land a top 5 PG, SG/SF or C, a top 10 PG, SG/SF or C and a top 25 PG, SG/SF or C.
Well, how the hell do we do that? First of all, we’re not going to land one of these players via free agency, so we can cross that option (if you think so, get serious). Let me see, how else do we acquire key players? Let me grab Shooter’s guide…ok free agents, via trade or via draft.
While trades are always an interesting way to acquire talent, I’d rather focus on the draft. For one, it’s a better way to build teams that are strong for a number of years, and as the top teams prove, it’s just a better way to build teams in general. Of the top 6 NBA juggernauts that I mentioned and their fifteen (15) top 10 players at their respective positions, 8 were drafted and developed by their respective teams. All six teams had at least one (1) player they drafted among those top players.
A lot of people seem worried about getting a top 2 draft pick in this year’s draft. While this certainly would be appealing and Beasley and Rose do seemingly have the greatest star potential, let’s take a look at the draft position of the top 25 players in order: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 13, 15, 29, 35, 57.
As you can see, half of these players were drafted in the top 4, which is somewhat obvious, and the rest are scattered in the mid-lottery and a couple in the 2nd round. So, some of it is just drafting smarter/better than the other team (a lot of the late round seletions are taking risk on high schoolers i.e. Kobe, TMac and Euro players i.e. Parker, Ginobilil)…and a lot of it is landing a top 4 pick and increasing your chances of drafting a big time player.
So, if we draft incredibly smart, go big or go home (Beasley, Rose, Greene, Jordan, Mayo) and our risk happens to pan out, we’re still a top 5 or 10 tier player and another AANS away from contending. How do we get these pieces in 2009?
Well unfortunately, the best way is to not sign Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith. This will obviously upset a lot of people because these are likeable, solid young players. Unfortunately, none of them have AANS potential, so they won’t be intricate in helping us contend in the long run. Also unfortunately, they are good enough in the short term to win us enough games and prevent us from landing that top 4 pick thus greatly decreasing our chances at landing that top 5 or 10 tier player that we need. Though nice players, when the times comes to rise into contention, players of the Telfair/Gomes/Smith caliber can be had for a minimal price.
So, next year you start Foye/McCants/Brewer/Jefferson/Richard. Since all of our “go big or go home” draft choices are Freshman in college this year, you give the pick the normal 19 year-old treatment and slowly bring them off of the bench. This strategy does 2 main things:
- It allows Foye and McCants the opportunity to possibly be that 3rd AANS player…which is their ceiling. If they develop into it, great. If they don’t, you know what you have and move on. If they end up somewhere in between, they have enough trade value to move.
- It allows this team to lose enough games to have a great shot at another top 4 pick in the 2009 draft
Fantastic, so if everything goes well, in 2010 you have a lineup of AANS (top 5 in the making-2008 or 2009 draft), AANS (top 10 in the making-2008 or 2009 draft), Al Jefferson (should be top 5 by 2010), Brewer (the ultimate glue guy), Foye-McCants (average or slightly above average NBA starter).
If I had a magic wand and could do anything I wanted, in 2010 we could have a lineup of:
Rubio/Foye/Brewer/Jefferson/Jordan
Rubio/Foye/Brewer/Beasley/Jefferson
Rose/McCants/Brewer/Jefferson/BJ Mullens
Mayo/Foye/Brewer/Jefferson/BJ Mullens
Rubio/Mayo/Brewer/Jefferson/Darko (trade Foye or McCants to Memphis)
Etc., etc. etc.
How much better lineups are these than the likely:
Telfair/Foye/Gomes/Beasley/Jefferson
Rose/Foye/Gomes/Jefferson/Richard
…or…even scarier….
Telfair/Jaric/Gomes/Jefferson/Richard
…with McCants, Foye, Brewer and Beasley/Rose coming off of the bench…
Still, with the above "contending" teams, you're still another 1-3 years of coming together to win a title, and you have to make sure you the cap space to all lock them up for a good amount of team. But, nonetheless, it's still worth the risk (see losing in the first round 8 years in a row).
Folks, as you can see, you create a contender not by locking up below average NBA starters to long contracts (see Jaric, Hassell, Hudson, etc.).
You create an NBA contender by having patience and taking big-time risks on big-time players.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Mid-Season Evaluation: Holy Shit, We Have a Lot of Work to Do
Has there been any game more demonstrative of how far this franchise needs to go than tonight’s game against the Lakers? This game is like watching Chris Hawkey’s band open up for Led Zeppelin (wait no, I forgot that you can only do cheerleading and dance team comparisons to Hawkey’s band just to be fair).
Now don’t get me wrong, I am 100,000 times happier with this year’s team in comparison with the squads we’ve put on the floor the last couple of years. Hell, most of those guys should be/will be out of the league in the next year anyway. (Would you give a contract to Avis, Hassell, Blount, James, Hudson, etc.? No thanks…)
And, at least we’re not in a dead end situation like, say, Sacramento, New York, New Jersey, Indiana, maybe Chicago, etc. They’re going to take a ton of work and waiting to make contenders again.
But, here’s the bad news people—we’re not even close. With the recent “huge balls” trades for Pau Gasol, Shaq Diesel and Jason Kidd, there are a tonnage of really, really good teams in the NBA.
Right now, we’re like a 16-year-old county fair queen 2nd place winner at the Playboy mansion—give us 3 years, some beat-the-odds development, new boobs and we could get competitive…but to be playmate of the year, a lot of things are going to have to…errrr…fall in the right direction.
So, what is my reasoning here? Well, let’s think about what the undeniable top teams in the NBA are presently—San Antonio, LA Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons. Now, Golden State, Houston, Denver, Utah, New Orleans and Cleveland are very good, but let’s just stick with six juggernauts for now to keep things in perspective.
Below, I created a chart of all of the starters in the NBA ranked from best starter to worst starter by position. Now, for the sake of the general point, please don’t get stuck on specific rankings. YES, we’re all going slight disagreements here and there with my rankings, BUT regardless, we’re all going to somewhat close and the main point will not change for any reasonable person’s rankings.
Ok, as you can see, I have the players separated in sections of 5 players creating six tiers. Obviously, the top 5 are the money players at each position, and the bottom 5 are highly questionable or developing players at their respective positions.
So, let’s look at what type of tier starters each of the six juggernaut teams have:
San Antonio: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player (fringe)…then a bunch of big bodies at C and an aging, but gritty supporting cast at the wing between Bowen, Finley, Berry…and one of the best coaches in the business.
Phoenix: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player…a gritty, defensive 2 guard in Raja Bell, a great veteran presence who is just below the average NBA starter in Grant Hill and a few good bench guys like Diaw and Barbosa…and one of the best coaches in the business.
Los Angeles: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player…and 2 solid veterans that are average to above average NBA starters at their respective positions…gritty team players off of the bench in Farmar, Walton, Turiaf, etc…and on of the best coaches in the business.
Dallas: 3 “Top Tier” players and 2 above average NBA starters at their respective positions...plus a loaded bench of team-oriented NBA veterans, fantastic home court advantage…and a pretty good coach.
Boston: 2 “Top Tier” players, 1 “Tier 2” player…a gritty, blossoming, near average NBA starter at the point…and then a relatively weak bench other than Posey. Another fantastic hom ecourt advantage team.
Detroit: 4 “Tier 2” players and 1 near average, gritty NBA vet at center…a solid mix off the bench…and a pretty good coach.
Now, remember that Houston, Utah, and New Orleans all have 2 “Top Tier” NBA players as well. Denver has 3 “Top Tier” NBA players Cleveland has the best player in the game. These teams are seriously good for a reason. In fact, the only top tier players not on one of these top 11 teams in the NBA are Dwight Howard (Orlando’s pretty good), D-Wade (Miami will be amazing next year) and Caron Butler (stuck in Washington…probably should have Marion ranked ahead of him anyway thus making Miami very scary next year considering their cap space and a likely very high draft choice).
So, in sum, you should all notice a pattern—to be a top 10 team in the NBA, you have to have at least 2 “Top Tier” players. To be a true title contender, you have to have an assemblage of 2 “Top Tier” players, another top player, an assembly of gritty, team-oriented vets and very good coaching. Or, you can be the exception to the rule like Detroit two years ago and have a whole starting lineup of tier 2 players, great coaching and an amazing selfless, team chemistry.
So, what does this say about the Timberwolves? Yikes. Let’s think about this by young player…
Al Jefferson—Already a “Tier 2” player in my eyes. Al threatens to be a mainstay there if he does not improve his defense. Nonetheless, he has a good shot of being a top tier guy. Thank God he’s our franchise player and locked up for a long time—a good foundation. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 1
Randy Foye—Wow. What happened to Randy? He looks brutal coming off injury and I believe he will be turning 25 sometime next season. I don’t want to prematurely write him off because I certainly believe he deserves a fair shake, but, in reality, how high is his ceiling? The top 10 players at PG & SG respectively are Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups, Jose Calderon, Devon Haris and Kobe Bryant, D Wade, Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, Manu Ginobili, Michael Redd, Vince Carter, Richard Hamilton, Ray Allen, Joe Johnson. Can anyone confidently see him getting to the level of any of those guys? I don’t…I probably didn’t even when I was high on him. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 3
Rashad McCants—The amazing enigma. Rashad undoubtedly has the physical talent to be up there in that group of “Tier 2” SGs. But, does he have the head and defensive intensity? Will he get there with this coaching staff? I doubt it. Unfortunately, more than anyone on this roster save maybe Bassy, I could see McCants totally blowing up somewhere else. Nonetheless, Rashad with some ample development seems stuck at the “Tier 3” to “Tier 4 level” at best. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 3
Sebastian Telfair—Another enigma. You’ve got to hand it to Bassy for even being in this conversation. The kid has been playing very, very well as of late. He’s proven to be a fantastic floor general, a solid defender and a pretty good overall player. Unfortunately, he seems to be able to put the ball in the basket. This makes Bassy the hardest to grade IMO. With a jumpshot, Bassy certainly has “Tier 2” potential, but without one, he’s doomed to that “Tier 4” to “Tier 5” area. If I were the Wolves, I’d sign him this off-season and find out where he lands. If he blows up, fantastic. If he never learns to shoot, he’s a solid backup point. Projected 3 Year Status: N/A
Corey Brewer—I like Corey Brewer’s game. He’s certainly that gritty, team oriented glue guy that everyone of those top teams above has. But, is he a Raja Bell without a jumpshot or the next Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince? I have no idea. Either way, he’ll be a valuable piece to our future. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 1 to Tier 5…haha
1st Round Draft Choice 2008—When put into this perspective, perhaps the most important piece of our future is our 1st round choice from this year’s draft. Being that no one else on our roster will likely develop into that “Top Tier” partner with Big Al to put us into contention, we very likely need to a hit a home run this year and draft that guy. In doing this analysis, now, more than ever, am I leaning toward Beasley if he’s available. If not Beasley, I think you have to go with Rose, Jordan, Mayo or Greene. Guys like Lopez, Gordon, Hibbert, etc., while very good, will not, will not, will not be top tier players in the league. Unless you have the balls, foresight and patience to draft one of those decent kids and wait for Ricky Rubio, BJ Mullens, etc. in the 2009 draft, you have to go boom or bust in 2008.
So, essentially as it stands, for us to be a top team in the NBA, we have to hope for one of three scenarios:
Big Al plays D, our draft choice this year blows up into a top tier player, Bassy learns to shoot, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, Gomes stays, we get a few gritty, veterans and one of the better coaches in the league.
-or-
Big Al plays D, our draft choice this year blows up into a top tier player, Foye or McCants hits their ceiling, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, Gomes stays, we get a few gritty, veterans and one of the better coaches in the league.
-or-
Big Al doesn’t get injured, our draft choice this year is a top 10 player at his position, Foye or McCants hits their ceiling, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, we find a top 10 center and get Larry Brown to magically teach us a team concept that everyone buys into and develops incredible chemistry
Well...Not only is any of the above certain to happen, but it likely wouldn’t/won’t happen for several years down the road if it any of it ever does.
In sum, strap in your seat belts and put on your patience pants. It’s going to be a long fucking ride.
Now don’t get me wrong, I am 100,000 times happier with this year’s team in comparison with the squads we’ve put on the floor the last couple of years. Hell, most of those guys should be/will be out of the league in the next year anyway. (Would you give a contract to Avis, Hassell, Blount, James, Hudson, etc.? No thanks…)
And, at least we’re not in a dead end situation like, say, Sacramento, New York, New Jersey, Indiana, maybe Chicago, etc. They’re going to take a ton of work and waiting to make contenders again.
But, here’s the bad news people—we’re not even close. With the recent “huge balls” trades for Pau Gasol, Shaq Diesel and Jason Kidd, there are a tonnage of really, really good teams in the NBA.
Right now, we’re like a 16-year-old county fair queen 2nd place winner at the Playboy mansion—give us 3 years, some beat-the-odds development, new boobs and we could get competitive…but to be playmate of the year, a lot of things are going to have to…errrr…fall in the right direction.
So, what is my reasoning here? Well, let’s think about what the undeniable top teams in the NBA are presently—San Antonio, LA Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons. Now, Golden State, Houston, Denver, Utah, New Orleans and Cleveland are very good, but let’s just stick with six juggernauts for now to keep things in perspective.
Below, I created a chart of all of the starters in the NBA ranked from best starter to worst starter by position. Now, for the sake of the general point, please don’t get stuck on specific rankings. YES, we’re all going slight disagreements here and there with my rankings, BUT regardless, we’re all going to somewhat close and the main point will not change for any reasonable person’s rankings.
Ok, as you can see, I have the players separated in sections of 5 players creating six tiers. Obviously, the top 5 are the money players at each position, and the bottom 5 are highly questionable or developing players at their respective positions.
So, let’s look at what type of tier starters each of the six juggernaut teams have:
San Antonio: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player (fringe)…then a bunch of big bodies at C and an aging, but gritty supporting cast at the wing between Bowen, Finley, Berry…and one of the best coaches in the business.
Phoenix: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player…a gritty, defensive 2 guard in Raja Bell, a great veteran presence who is just below the average NBA starter in Grant Hill and a few good bench guys like Diaw and Barbosa…and one of the best coaches in the business.
Los Angeles: 2 “Top Tier” players (one #1), 1 “Tier 2” player…and 2 solid veterans that are average to above average NBA starters at their respective positions…gritty team players off of the bench in Farmar, Walton, Turiaf, etc…and on of the best coaches in the business.
Dallas: 3 “Top Tier” players and 2 above average NBA starters at their respective positions...plus a loaded bench of team-oriented NBA veterans, fantastic home court advantage…and a pretty good coach.
Boston: 2 “Top Tier” players, 1 “Tier 2” player…a gritty, blossoming, near average NBA starter at the point…and then a relatively weak bench other than Posey. Another fantastic hom ecourt advantage team.
Detroit: 4 “Tier 2” players and 1 near average, gritty NBA vet at center…a solid mix off the bench…and a pretty good coach.
Now, remember that Houston, Utah, and New Orleans all have 2 “Top Tier” NBA players as well. Denver has 3 “Top Tier” NBA players Cleveland has the best player in the game. These teams are seriously good for a reason. In fact, the only top tier players not on one of these top 11 teams in the NBA are Dwight Howard (Orlando’s pretty good), D-Wade (Miami will be amazing next year) and Caron Butler (stuck in Washington…probably should have Marion ranked ahead of him anyway thus making Miami very scary next year considering their cap space and a likely very high draft choice).
So, in sum, you should all notice a pattern—to be a top 10 team in the NBA, you have to have at least 2 “Top Tier” players. To be a true title contender, you have to have an assemblage of 2 “Top Tier” players, another top player, an assembly of gritty, team-oriented vets and very good coaching. Or, you can be the exception to the rule like Detroit two years ago and have a whole starting lineup of tier 2 players, great coaching and an amazing selfless, team chemistry.
So, what does this say about the Timberwolves? Yikes. Let’s think about this by young player…
Al Jefferson—Already a “Tier 2” player in my eyes. Al threatens to be a mainstay there if he does not improve his defense. Nonetheless, he has a good shot of being a top tier guy. Thank God he’s our franchise player and locked up for a long time—a good foundation. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 1
Randy Foye—Wow. What happened to Randy? He looks brutal coming off injury and I believe he will be turning 25 sometime next season. I don’t want to prematurely write him off because I certainly believe he deserves a fair shake, but, in reality, how high is his ceiling? The top 10 players at PG & SG respectively are Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups, Jose Calderon, Devon Haris and Kobe Bryant, D Wade, Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, Manu Ginobili, Michael Redd, Vince Carter, Richard Hamilton, Ray Allen, Joe Johnson. Can anyone confidently see him getting to the level of any of those guys? I don’t…I probably didn’t even when I was high on him. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 3
Rashad McCants—The amazing enigma. Rashad undoubtedly has the physical talent to be up there in that group of “Tier 2” SGs. But, does he have the head and defensive intensity? Will he get there with this coaching staff? I doubt it. Unfortunately, more than anyone on this roster save maybe Bassy, I could see McCants totally blowing up somewhere else. Nonetheless, Rashad with some ample development seems stuck at the “Tier 3” to “Tier 4 level” at best. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 3
Sebastian Telfair—Another enigma. You’ve got to hand it to Bassy for even being in this conversation. The kid has been playing very, very well as of late. He’s proven to be a fantastic floor general, a solid defender and a pretty good overall player. Unfortunately, he seems to be able to put the ball in the basket. This makes Bassy the hardest to grade IMO. With a jumpshot, Bassy certainly has “Tier 2” potential, but without one, he’s doomed to that “Tier 4” to “Tier 5” area. If I were the Wolves, I’d sign him this off-season and find out where he lands. If he blows up, fantastic. If he never learns to shoot, he’s a solid backup point. Projected 3 Year Status: N/A
Corey Brewer—I like Corey Brewer’s game. He’s certainly that gritty, team oriented glue guy that everyone of those top teams above has. But, is he a Raja Bell without a jumpshot or the next Josh Howard/Tayshaun Prince? I have no idea. Either way, he’ll be a valuable piece to our future. Projected 3 Year Status: Tier 1 to Tier 5…haha
1st Round Draft Choice 2008—When put into this perspective, perhaps the most important piece of our future is our 1st round choice from this year’s draft. Being that no one else on our roster will likely develop into that “Top Tier” partner with Big Al to put us into contention, we very likely need to a hit a home run this year and draft that guy. In doing this analysis, now, more than ever, am I leaning toward Beasley if he’s available. If not Beasley, I think you have to go with Rose, Jordan, Mayo or Greene. Guys like Lopez, Gordon, Hibbert, etc., while very good, will not, will not, will not be top tier players in the league. Unless you have the balls, foresight and patience to draft one of those decent kids and wait for Ricky Rubio, BJ Mullens, etc. in the 2009 draft, you have to go boom or bust in 2008.
So, essentially as it stands, for us to be a top team in the NBA, we have to hope for one of three scenarios:
Big Al plays D, our draft choice this year blows up into a top tier player, Bassy learns to shoot, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, Gomes stays, we get a few gritty, veterans and one of the better coaches in the league.
-or-
Big Al plays D, our draft choice this year blows up into a top tier player, Foye or McCants hits their ceiling, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, Gomes stays, we get a few gritty, veterans and one of the better coaches in the league.
-or-
Big Al doesn’t get injured, our draft choice this year is a top 10 player at his position, Foye or McCants hits their ceiling, Corey Brewer matures into a top defender, we find a top 10 center and get Larry Brown to magically teach us a team concept that everyone buys into and develops incredible chemistry
Well...Not only is any of the above certain to happen, but it likely wouldn’t/won’t happen for several years down the road if it any of it ever does.
In sum, strap in your seat belts and put on your patience pants. It’s going to be a long fucking ride.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Evaluating the 2008 Draft Class and the Potential Organizational Impact of Each Choice, Pt. 4 (Final Edition)
And, to round out my extensive draft evaluation, we have two draft prospects that, in my mind, are safe bets. OJ Mayo and Donte Greene are going to be good NBA players. While Mayo and Greene could end up as among the best players in the NBA a la Beasley, Rose, Jordan and Gordon, I don’t see it as likely as the aforementioned four. But, they are nice players already and definitely don’t have the bust potential of aforementioned four as well. Here’s my breakdown.
#6 Donte Greene. 6’10’’ 226 lb. SF/PF Syracuse
To put it simply, Donte Greene is a hybrid of Rashard Lewis and Eddie Griffin. He not only plays like the two combined, he looks like the two of them if you did one of those face combo deals you see on Conan O’Brien. It’s almost strange.
Donte will be quickly successful in the NBA just because his skill-set will make him an immediate mismatch at 3 spot. First of all, Donte Greene is an amazingly dangerous outside shooter. He’s much like Rashard Lewis in that regard. He’s got a calm, smooth demeanor as he hovers around the arc, drawing his big-man defender out of his comfort zone, and his shot is equally smooth upon release. Though he’s only shooting 37% from behind the arc, his technique is great and touch is equally fantastic.
On top of that, he’s a legit 6’10’’ and has fantastic PF/C-like rebounding and blocking instincts. So, why wouldn’t we play him at the 4? Well, he’s probably a little to skinny in the frame to bang with big boys all game, first of all. Plus, his fantastic athleticism and height advantage would allow him to defend most 3’s. Thus, comparatively, he’d be a much, much bigger match-up issue at the 3.
So, why don’t we just draft Donte now if he’s so ridiculously good. Well, as with any young prospect, he does have a few issues. For one, Donte falls in love with the 3-point shot. I’ve seen him play about 5 or 6 times this year. The last two he was a combined 2 for 15 from the 3-point arc and looked pretty brutal. What’s weird about Donte is that when he decides to, he’s actually pretty effective at slashing to the basket. If a team could teach him to understand the effectiveness of being a dual threat, he’d be a much more dominant scorer.
In a nutshell, Donte, as most major prospects are, has all of the skills to be a dominant NBA player, but still needs a lot of work to put it together. His success is completely dependant on to what degree he ever “figures it out.”
So, what are the T-Wolves ramifications if we select Donte Greene. Well, for one, we still have a hole at center. Secondly, we likely would have to let Ryan Gomes walk who is seemingly developing into a solid NBA player in favor for a all-potential kid who will likely need 3 years to become an effective scoring force.
That being said, if Greene could live up to his potential and Brewer could learn to shoot, a lineup of:
Telfair/Foye (or Foye/Telfair)
Brewer
Greene
Jefferson
Hardin-Dorsey-Jawai/Richard
…has potential to be a defensive beast of a team with over-flowing rebounding, size, shot-blocking and athleticism. This brings me to a best-possible Wolves scenario (which, as usual, will never happen).
Let’s say we end up with a top 2 pick and Memphis is in the 3-7 range. Considering Memphis’s potential need for a SG and lack of desire to add payroll, could we swing a Foye + Miami future 1st deal for the 3-7 pick (Foye’s contract would be less than that of the 3-7 pick in the year’s draft, has fewer years + he’d be a nice SG option for them and a good pair with Lowry/Conley)? If so, I’d select Derrick Rose and then Donte Greene.
Rose
Brewer
Greene
Jefferson
Dorsey
Now, there’s your juggernaut. You have a 6’4’’ physical specimen at PG. Then, at the 2-5, you have players of the following height: 6’9’’, 6’10’’, 6’10’’, 6’10. Not to mention Rose, Greene and Jefferson have what it takes to be elite scorers in the league and all in different areas (Rose: slasher/creator; Greene: perimeter threat; Jefferson: post animal) and Brewer and Dorsey have what it takes to be premier perimeter and interior defenders in the league respectively. Oh, and they’re all 23 and younger…I like.
#7 O.J. Mayo. 6’5’’ 195 lb. PG/SG. USC
Everyone here is familiar with OJ Mayo. I mean the kid scored 27 points, had seven rebounds and had three steals in high school varsity debut…as a 7th grader!
OJ’s a weird animal. He seemingly has that “it” that Kobe, MJ, T-Mac have. I watched him score 63 points or something in a high school game last year in one of the most absurd performances I’ve ever seen.
Nonetheless, he’s not highest regarded prospect in this draft. In fact, you’ll notice that I have him at #7. This is about the average position I have him at because some mock drafts I see have him as high as #3 and as low as #11. He’s all over the place.
Like Rose, though Mayo still shows flashes of extreme superstardom, he’s struggled a bit at the collegiate level. For one, what position is Mayo? He doesn’t seemingly have the PG instincts as Rose, but he’s certainly not void of them either—he can run an offense. But, like a Gilbert Arenas, he’s primarily looking to score for himself. Unfortunately, the other players on Mayo’s team are garbage in my opinion and Tim Floyd’s offense isn’t exactly up Mayo’s play-making alley with it’s drawn-out plays leading to isolations at the low end of the shot clock (thank you draftexpress for pointing that out to me…which is in deed true). Though Mayo’s shot is nice, his shooting hasn’t been fantastic—shooting 43% from the field and 37% from downtown. Plus, Mayo’s averaging more turnovers than assists. At the same time, Mayo has instances like last night in which he dropped an effortless 20 in the first half last night and clearly looked like he was 4 or 5 leagues better than everyone else on the court.
Basically, with all of Mayo’s talent there are a ton of questions. Is he the next Gilbert Arenas? Does a Gilbert Arenas type allow you to actually win in the NBA? Is he the next Kobe? Will he be able to score effectively in the NBA? Can he run an NBA offense? Could he evolve into a taller, more-dangerous Chris Paul?
That’s the problem—who knows? In my opinion, other than maybe Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo’s stock will be the most highly dependant on his tournament showing. If he comes out as the type of player that can completely take over games and lead USC on a big run, he’ll have people all over him. If he distributes the ball and his team-game leadership allows USC to go on a big run, he’ll have teams begging for him. If he fizzles out, scoring 18 point with 5 TOs on 35% shooting, he could drop to the 10s in the draft order. We’ll just have to wait and see if he has the magic.
So, as for the ramifications of drafting Mayo, I really don’t know because I’m still not sure what position he plays. Would it be a good idea to tandem him with Foye in the backcourt? Would Mayo at point and Shaddy at the 2 make any sense? Maybe, with Telfair’s recent surge, we would want Telfair at the 1 and Mayo at the 2…I don’t know. The OJ Mayo saga is certainly a “To Be Continued…”
UP NEXT (Hopefully Monday’s blog…maybe Sunday…maybe Wednesday…who knows): What it takes to be an average starter in the NBA…My TWolves-Celtics home game experience…The Short-Term effects of extreme reptile crack use…
#6 Donte Greene. 6’10’’ 226 lb. SF/PF Syracuse
To put it simply, Donte Greene is a hybrid of Rashard Lewis and Eddie Griffin. He not only plays like the two combined, he looks like the two of them if you did one of those face combo deals you see on Conan O’Brien. It’s almost strange.
Donte will be quickly successful in the NBA just because his skill-set will make him an immediate mismatch at 3 spot. First of all, Donte Greene is an amazingly dangerous outside shooter. He’s much like Rashard Lewis in that regard. He’s got a calm, smooth demeanor as he hovers around the arc, drawing his big-man defender out of his comfort zone, and his shot is equally smooth upon release. Though he’s only shooting 37% from behind the arc, his technique is great and touch is equally fantastic.
On top of that, he’s a legit 6’10’’ and has fantastic PF/C-like rebounding and blocking instincts. So, why wouldn’t we play him at the 4? Well, he’s probably a little to skinny in the frame to bang with big boys all game, first of all. Plus, his fantastic athleticism and height advantage would allow him to defend most 3’s. Thus, comparatively, he’d be a much, much bigger match-up issue at the 3.
So, why don’t we just draft Donte now if he’s so ridiculously good. Well, as with any young prospect, he does have a few issues. For one, Donte falls in love with the 3-point shot. I’ve seen him play about 5 or 6 times this year. The last two he was a combined 2 for 15 from the 3-point arc and looked pretty brutal. What’s weird about Donte is that when he decides to, he’s actually pretty effective at slashing to the basket. If a team could teach him to understand the effectiveness of being a dual threat, he’d be a much more dominant scorer.
In a nutshell, Donte, as most major prospects are, has all of the skills to be a dominant NBA player, but still needs a lot of work to put it together. His success is completely dependant on to what degree he ever “figures it out.”
So, what are the T-Wolves ramifications if we select Donte Greene. Well, for one, we still have a hole at center. Secondly, we likely would have to let Ryan Gomes walk who is seemingly developing into a solid NBA player in favor for a all-potential kid who will likely need 3 years to become an effective scoring force.
That being said, if Greene could live up to his potential and Brewer could learn to shoot, a lineup of:
Telfair/Foye (or Foye/Telfair)
Brewer
Greene
Jefferson
Hardin-Dorsey-Jawai/Richard
…has potential to be a defensive beast of a team with over-flowing rebounding, size, shot-blocking and athleticism. This brings me to a best-possible Wolves scenario (which, as usual, will never happen).
Let’s say we end up with a top 2 pick and Memphis is in the 3-7 range. Considering Memphis’s potential need for a SG and lack of desire to add payroll, could we swing a Foye + Miami future 1st deal for the 3-7 pick (Foye’s contract would be less than that of the 3-7 pick in the year’s draft, has fewer years + he’d be a nice SG option for them and a good pair with Lowry/Conley)? If so, I’d select Derrick Rose and then Donte Greene.
Rose
Brewer
Greene
Jefferson
Dorsey
Now, there’s your juggernaut. You have a 6’4’’ physical specimen at PG. Then, at the 2-5, you have players of the following height: 6’9’’, 6’10’’, 6’10’’, 6’10. Not to mention Rose, Greene and Jefferson have what it takes to be elite scorers in the league and all in different areas (Rose: slasher/creator; Greene: perimeter threat; Jefferson: post animal) and Brewer and Dorsey have what it takes to be premier perimeter and interior defenders in the league respectively. Oh, and they’re all 23 and younger…I like.
#7 O.J. Mayo. 6’5’’ 195 lb. PG/SG. USC
Everyone here is familiar with OJ Mayo. I mean the kid scored 27 points, had seven rebounds and had three steals in high school varsity debut…as a 7th grader!
OJ’s a weird animal. He seemingly has that “it” that Kobe, MJ, T-Mac have. I watched him score 63 points or something in a high school game last year in one of the most absurd performances I’ve ever seen.
Nonetheless, he’s not highest regarded prospect in this draft. In fact, you’ll notice that I have him at #7. This is about the average position I have him at because some mock drafts I see have him as high as #3 and as low as #11. He’s all over the place.
Like Rose, though Mayo still shows flashes of extreme superstardom, he’s struggled a bit at the collegiate level. For one, what position is Mayo? He doesn’t seemingly have the PG instincts as Rose, but he’s certainly not void of them either—he can run an offense. But, like a Gilbert Arenas, he’s primarily looking to score for himself. Unfortunately, the other players on Mayo’s team are garbage in my opinion and Tim Floyd’s offense isn’t exactly up Mayo’s play-making alley with it’s drawn-out plays leading to isolations at the low end of the shot clock (thank you draftexpress for pointing that out to me…which is in deed true). Though Mayo’s shot is nice, his shooting hasn’t been fantastic—shooting 43% from the field and 37% from downtown. Plus, Mayo’s averaging more turnovers than assists. At the same time, Mayo has instances like last night in which he dropped an effortless 20 in the first half last night and clearly looked like he was 4 or 5 leagues better than everyone else on the court.
Basically, with all of Mayo’s talent there are a ton of questions. Is he the next Gilbert Arenas? Does a Gilbert Arenas type allow you to actually win in the NBA? Is he the next Kobe? Will he be able to score effectively in the NBA? Can he run an NBA offense? Could he evolve into a taller, more-dangerous Chris Paul?
That’s the problem—who knows? In my opinion, other than maybe Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo’s stock will be the most highly dependant on his tournament showing. If he comes out as the type of player that can completely take over games and lead USC on a big run, he’ll have people all over him. If he distributes the ball and his team-game leadership allows USC to go on a big run, he’ll have teams begging for him. If he fizzles out, scoring 18 point with 5 TOs on 35% shooting, he could drop to the 10s in the draft order. We’ll just have to wait and see if he has the magic.
So, as for the ramifications of drafting Mayo, I really don’t know because I’m still not sure what position he plays. Would it be a good idea to tandem him with Foye in the backcourt? Would Mayo at point and Shaddy at the 2 make any sense? Maybe, with Telfair’s recent surge, we would want Telfair at the 1 and Mayo at the 2…I don’t know. The OJ Mayo saga is certainly a “To Be Continued…”
UP NEXT (Hopefully Monday’s blog…maybe Sunday…maybe Wednesday…who knows): What it takes to be an average starter in the NBA…My TWolves-Celtics home game experience…The Short-Term effects of extreme reptile crack use…
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Evaluating the 2008 Draft Class and the Potential Organizational Impact of Each Choice, Pt. 3
Due to popular demand, I’ll do a quick review of two players that have been asked about frequently—Roy Hibbert and Hasheem Thabeet. Here it is: if we draft them with a top 5 pick, I’ll be a Phoenix Suns fan. Thanks for playing. Don’t get me wrong, both will probably be decent contributors in the NBA, put a top pick for a decent center at best? That’s just dumb. If you think one of those two will be better than an average NBA center, ask yourself if you see Hibbert or Thabeet being better than the following: Emeka Okafor, Samuel Dalembert, Chris Bosh, Ben Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jermaine O’Neal, Shaq Diesel, Dwight Howard, Chris Kaman, Andris Biedrins, Andrew Bynum, Tyson Chandler, Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, Greg Oden. That’s a list of more than half of the current NBA starting Centers right now. Neither Hibbert nor Thabeet will be better than any of those guys. Using a top 5 pick on a stop-gap, below-average starting player is not a good plan.
#4 Eric Gordon. 6’4’’ 220 lb. SG Indiana
Is Eric Gordon the most shockingly good player based on appearance alone that you’ve ever seen? If you did a lineup of all the Indiana players, had no prior knowledge of any of the players’ playing ability and were asked to put them in order of prowess, no one would put Eric Gordon in the first half. In fact, I’d be positive the guy was a walk on. Gordon looks like a strange mix of Mike Jones and the kid from Webster—hardly an all-world basketball talent.
Nonetheless, Gordon is an absolutely dirty scorer. His shooting range is fantastic. His stroke is smooth and effortless. He’s a highlight reel athlete capable of jaw-dropping slam dunks. He also has fearless attitude common in most superstars.
So, why wouldn’t we want Eric Gordon? Well, how many stocky, 6’4’’ 2 guards can we have? Gordon’s not a great defender. He’s not a Michael Jordan-esque caliber guy, and definitely has no chance at playing the 1. In a nutshell, at his ceiling, he’s likely not much of an improvement on what we have in Foye or McCants.
So, the only reason to draft Gordon that makes sense is if we have a deal or deals in place involving Foye and/or McCants for a contributing young C and/or PG. Let’s say we take Gordon and don’t have trades in place for Foye and McCants. Then, maybe we even keep Gerald Green. Here’s our depth chart:
Telfair
Foye/McCants/Gordon/Green/Brewer/Jaric
Gomes
Jefferson/Walker
Richard/Madsen
Maybe we can work a Walker and Madsen deal to the Clippers for Quentin Ross and Eric Piatkowski and go with a depth chart of:
Telfair
Foye/McCants/Gordon/Green/Brewer/Jaric/Ross/Piatkowski
Gomes
Jefferson
Richard
That seems very McHale-esque to me.
In all seriousness, the only move that makes sense is to take Gordon as a better-personality replacement for McCants and to swing a deal involving Rashad for a young center. If Memphis continues the fire sale and unloads Mike Miller, Rashad would be a nice young, cheap, short-contract replacement at the two guard and would likely swap us for Darko Milicic. Darko takes a lot of heat for not living up to his high billing, but don’t let that fool you—Darko is still a 22-year-old 7 footer that is fantastic at blocking shots, rebounding, playing tough on D and has a mean streak to boot. He’d be great next to Big Al.
Telfair/Foye (or Foye/Telfair)
Gordon/Foye
Gomes/Brewer
Jefferson/Walker
Darko/Richard
That’s a nice young squad and a coach’s dream.
#5 Brook Lopez. 7’0’’ 260 lb. C Stanford
First of all, I’ve always wondered how Brook Lopez has a twin brother that is significantly worse than him at basketball. How does this happen? Is the other one a huge drunk? Does Brook use HGH? Where’s the separation here?
Anyway, Brook Lopez is a very talented player. In fact, he is, in a way, somewhat similar to our own Big Al. Brook is a force on the offensive end. He’s a strong kid with a myriad of solid post moves. I watched him a couple years ago in person against my Arizona State Sun Devils, and he pretty much destroyed us because we had absolutely no one that could sort of defend him. Brook is also a pretty good rebounding big man and his success on the boards in college should translate to success in the NBA as well due to his good instincts.
Unfortunately, he makes little sense for the Wolves to draft. For one, though he’s a bit taller than Big Al and they have similar strengths, Big Al is much, much quicker and a bit more athletic. Plus, you don’t want a poor man’s Big Al next to Big Al because who the hell is going to play defense? I guess Brook Lopez would help our interior D due to his size and strength alone, but he’s certainly not going to take the league by storm defensively. I honestly think a defensive beast like DeVon Hardin would be much better suited in front court with Big Al. Think of the dynamic a David West and Tyson Chandler have. I think that’s what you’re looking for here. Unfortunately, Big Al and Brook Lopez provide the same side of that front court dynamic…thus not creating much of a dynamic.
Where Lopez would be a very good player is on a team like the Nets alongside Sean Williams and serving as the main post offensive option on a perimeter oriented team. That’s a much better fit for Lopez.
So, what are the team ramifications of drafting Lopez? They’re minimal. Like Jordan, you just plug him in at center. Like Hibbert, I don’t see Lopez taking the league by storm and being an above-average starting Center in the NBA. Add in the fact that he’s more of an offensive player than a defensive presence, I don’t know why you’d want him with other/better draft options available. The only way I could see us selecting Lopez is if another team covets him and we get a draft-day deal in place.
#4 Eric Gordon. 6’4’’ 220 lb. SG Indiana
Is Eric Gordon the most shockingly good player based on appearance alone that you’ve ever seen? If you did a lineup of all the Indiana players, had no prior knowledge of any of the players’ playing ability and were asked to put them in order of prowess, no one would put Eric Gordon in the first half. In fact, I’d be positive the guy was a walk on. Gordon looks like a strange mix of Mike Jones and the kid from Webster—hardly an all-world basketball talent.
Nonetheless, Gordon is an absolutely dirty scorer. His shooting range is fantastic. His stroke is smooth and effortless. He’s a highlight reel athlete capable of jaw-dropping slam dunks. He also has fearless attitude common in most superstars.
So, why wouldn’t we want Eric Gordon? Well, how many stocky, 6’4’’ 2 guards can we have? Gordon’s not a great defender. He’s not a Michael Jordan-esque caliber guy, and definitely has no chance at playing the 1. In a nutshell, at his ceiling, he’s likely not much of an improvement on what we have in Foye or McCants.
So, the only reason to draft Gordon that makes sense is if we have a deal or deals in place involving Foye and/or McCants for a contributing young C and/or PG. Let’s say we take Gordon and don’t have trades in place for Foye and McCants. Then, maybe we even keep Gerald Green. Here’s our depth chart:
Telfair
Foye/McCants/Gordon/Green/Brewer/Jaric
Gomes
Jefferson/Walker
Richard/Madsen
Maybe we can work a Walker and Madsen deal to the Clippers for Quentin Ross and Eric Piatkowski and go with a depth chart of:
Telfair
Foye/McCants/Gordon/Green/Brewer/Jaric/Ross/Piatkowski
Gomes
Jefferson
Richard
That seems very McHale-esque to me.
In all seriousness, the only move that makes sense is to take Gordon as a better-personality replacement for McCants and to swing a deal involving Rashad for a young center. If Memphis continues the fire sale and unloads Mike Miller, Rashad would be a nice young, cheap, short-contract replacement at the two guard and would likely swap us for Darko Milicic. Darko takes a lot of heat for not living up to his high billing, but don’t let that fool you—Darko is still a 22-year-old 7 footer that is fantastic at blocking shots, rebounding, playing tough on D and has a mean streak to boot. He’d be great next to Big Al.
Telfair/Foye (or Foye/Telfair)
Gordon/Foye
Gomes/Brewer
Jefferson/Walker
Darko/Richard
That’s a nice young squad and a coach’s dream.
#5 Brook Lopez. 7’0’’ 260 lb. C Stanford
First of all, I’ve always wondered how Brook Lopez has a twin brother that is significantly worse than him at basketball. How does this happen? Is the other one a huge drunk? Does Brook use HGH? Where’s the separation here?
Anyway, Brook Lopez is a very talented player. In fact, he is, in a way, somewhat similar to our own Big Al. Brook is a force on the offensive end. He’s a strong kid with a myriad of solid post moves. I watched him a couple years ago in person against my Arizona State Sun Devils, and he pretty much destroyed us because we had absolutely no one that could sort of defend him. Brook is also a pretty good rebounding big man and his success on the boards in college should translate to success in the NBA as well due to his good instincts.
Unfortunately, he makes little sense for the Wolves to draft. For one, though he’s a bit taller than Big Al and they have similar strengths, Big Al is much, much quicker and a bit more athletic. Plus, you don’t want a poor man’s Big Al next to Big Al because who the hell is going to play defense? I guess Brook Lopez would help our interior D due to his size and strength alone, but he’s certainly not going to take the league by storm defensively. I honestly think a defensive beast like DeVon Hardin would be much better suited in front court with Big Al. Think of the dynamic a David West and Tyson Chandler have. I think that’s what you’re looking for here. Unfortunately, Big Al and Brook Lopez provide the same side of that front court dynamic…thus not creating much of a dynamic.
Where Lopez would be a very good player is on a team like the Nets alongside Sean Williams and serving as the main post offensive option on a perimeter oriented team. That’s a much better fit for Lopez.
So, what are the team ramifications of drafting Lopez? They’re minimal. Like Jordan, you just plug him in at center. Like Hibbert, I don’t see Lopez taking the league by storm and being an above-average starting Center in the NBA. Add in the fact that he’s more of an offensive player than a defensive presence, I don’t know why you’d want him with other/better draft options available. The only way I could see us selecting Lopez is if another team covets him and we get a draft-day deal in place.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Evaluating the 2008 NBA Draft Class and the Potential Organizational Impact of Each Choice, Pt. 2
Prospects #2 & #3 happen to play the two positions Timberwolves fans see as the greatest places for improvement—PG & C. Someone explain this to McHale before he drafts Dan Coleman.
#2 Derrick Rose. 6’3’’ 195 lb. PG Memphis
Who is Derrick Rose really? To many he’s the next big-time PG—the third in the triumvirate of future all-world PG’s, joining Chris Paul and Deron Williams. To others, he’s an overrated waste of a pick that will likely never be a true point guard.
Why such a variance in opinion? Well, thus far this college season, Rose has been the equivalent of passing through Amsterdam’s red light district with your wallet still in your hotel room.
While Rose has shown increasing flashes of brilliance, he’s seemingly statistically unspectacular when compared to Chris Paul’s production in his Freshman year at Wake Forest. Let’s take a look at the stats:
NAME FG% FT% 3P% PTS REB AST TO STL
Chris Paul 49.6 84.3 46.5 14.8 3.1 5.9 2.6 2.7
Derrick Rose 47.1 67.6 34.0 14.2 4.5 4.4 3.0 1.2
On paper, Paul was a better shooter, defender and passer. That’s damning evidence to most, and herein lies the problem for most Rose haters—Rose is not a Chris Paul or Deron Williams-type player. If you think this, you are completely misunderstanding him.
So, what is Rose in reality? His ceiling is somewhat of a poor man’s Wade in terms of scoring but with a much better ability to pass and run his team’s offense. If you’re hoping for a guy that will average 9-11 assists per game, Rose will probably never be that. But, if you want 5-7 a game and an ability to absolutely collapse defenses, then Rose is your man.
His size, ability to finish and general ability to be clutch leads to me to more of a Baron Davis comparison than anyone else (I’m shocked I’ve yet to see this comparison around)…just without the injury history. What team wouldn’t be elated with a healthy Baron Davis running their squad right now? Let’s compare Rose’s stats with Baron’s as Sophomore at UCLA:
NAME FG% FT% 3P% PTS REB AST TO STL
Baron Davis 48.1 67.6 34.3 15.9 3.6 5.1 3.2 2.5
Derrick Rose 47.1 67.6 34.0 14.2 4.5 4.4 3.0 1.2
Rose, this year, is nearly statistically identical to Baron Davis in his sophomore year…other than steals and a few small bumps in PTS and ASTs. Now that’s impressive. And, with Rose’s recent improved play, who’s to say that those numbers won’t increase to better than Baron’s?
Oh yea, did I fail to mention that they’re nearly identical in size and Rose is even quite a bit more athletic? Would anyone like a younger, more athletic, far less injury prone Baron Davis on their team? I would….
So, where do we go as a squad if we select Rose? Well, as I showed with Beasley, unless we draft a Center, we’re going to have a complete roster log jam no matter what position we go with.
Now, obviously Rose is going to have to be your starting PG if you commit such a high pick to him on a young team. This bumps Bassy and Foye out of the starting PG position. Now, who would be a better fit at the 2-guard alongside Rose? Being that Rose likely won’t have great range from NBA 3 or at least will need to develop it over time, we’d want a good shooting 2 guard alongside Rose on the perimeter to stretch the defense. That immediately eliminates Brewer—that’s OK because I prefer him as our future 3 anyway. Foye’s outside shot certainly has improved, but to what degree? Unfortunately, we don’t know that yet. McCants is one of the top 3 point shooters in the league at the moment, but his defense is weak, and when coupled with Rose, that may leave us a bit weak in terms of perimeter defense. Still, he seems to be the best option we have and would do fine.
My solution for the team if we draft Rose is to sign-and-trade Bassy for a good-sized, young backup PF, let the Rhino walk, resign Gomes for a couple years, target Dorsey, Jawai or Hardin in the early 2nd round. This would leave us with the following lineup:
Rose/Foye
McCants/Foye
Gomes/Brewer/Walker
Jefferson/Bassy Sign-and-trade/Walker
Dorsey-Jawai-Hardin/Richard
That’s a pretty dynamic team overall, and one I’d be very happy with.
Unfortunately, everyone would have to realize that Rose isn’t going to take the NBA by storm right away. The kid isn’t even taking the college game by storm. So, it’s likely a 1 step backward for 2 steps forward type thing with Rose and a new, young center (actually, hopefully it’s 1 step backward for 19 steps forward type thing).
So, if you can’t tell, despite the fact that a Rose selections would make 3 selections of 6’4’’ guards in a row, I’d be very, very pleased with Derrick Rose in a Timberwolves uniform next year.
#3 DeAndre Jordan. 7’0’’ 250 lb. C Texas A&M
DeAndre Jordan brings boom or bust to a whole new level. If you actually haven’t done shit and are still projected as a top 3 pick a very, very deep draft, you have to be one hell of a physical specimen. And, DeAndre Jordan is just that.
Have you ever seen a 7 footer with superhuman strength and build do a dunk like this?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN2RoJD3dx8
That’s some crazy, crazy stuff. 7 footers that are that athletic don’t bust. They become Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler. Unfortunately, all of these players take years to develop and Jordan seems to be a lot more unpolished than any of those three, except maybe Chandler, at this stage of the game. Remember, it took Chandler 4-5 years before he looked decent. It seems funny now, but there was a point where he was considered a Kwame Brown/Michael Olowakandi type bust.
“Can we wait for this kid?” is the question. A major part of me thinks how can we not just put a player of his size and athletic ability next to big all and let him rebound and block shots by size alone? That would work wouldn’t it? Well, considering he’s only averaging 6.6 boards just over 1 shot block a game in college, that’s highly debatable. I honestly don’t know what his deal is. The 3 games I’ve watched Jordan, he’s had a several sprained ankle, so he didn’t show much.
The hard thing is if Jordan does become a Bynum or a Dwight Howard, he’d be the biggest impact of any of the potential draftees for this team and would be well worth the wait. A front court of Jefferson and Jordan could give us arguably the nastiest front court in the entire league and ensure us years upon years of success.
As for the ramifications of selecting Jordan, team-wise it’s an easy deal—just plug the kid in at center.
Telfair/Foye
McCants/Foye
Gomes/Brewer/Walker
Jefferson/Smith/Walker
Jordan/Richard
Not bad.
#2 Derrick Rose. 6’3’’ 195 lb. PG Memphis
Who is Derrick Rose really? To many he’s the next big-time PG—the third in the triumvirate of future all-world PG’s, joining Chris Paul and Deron Williams. To others, he’s an overrated waste of a pick that will likely never be a true point guard.
Why such a variance in opinion? Well, thus far this college season, Rose has been the equivalent of passing through Amsterdam’s red light district with your wallet still in your hotel room.
While Rose has shown increasing flashes of brilliance, he’s seemingly statistically unspectacular when compared to Chris Paul’s production in his Freshman year at Wake Forest. Let’s take a look at the stats:
NAME FG% FT% 3P% PTS REB AST TO STL
Chris Paul 49.6 84.3 46.5 14.8 3.1 5.9 2.6 2.7
Derrick Rose 47.1 67.6 34.0 14.2 4.5 4.4 3.0 1.2
On paper, Paul was a better shooter, defender and passer. That’s damning evidence to most, and herein lies the problem for most Rose haters—Rose is not a Chris Paul or Deron Williams-type player. If you think this, you are completely misunderstanding him.
So, what is Rose in reality? His ceiling is somewhat of a poor man’s Wade in terms of scoring but with a much better ability to pass and run his team’s offense. If you’re hoping for a guy that will average 9-11 assists per game, Rose will probably never be that. But, if you want 5-7 a game and an ability to absolutely collapse defenses, then Rose is your man.
His size, ability to finish and general ability to be clutch leads to me to more of a Baron Davis comparison than anyone else (I’m shocked I’ve yet to see this comparison around)…just without the injury history. What team wouldn’t be elated with a healthy Baron Davis running their squad right now? Let’s compare Rose’s stats with Baron’s as Sophomore at UCLA:
NAME FG% FT% 3P% PTS REB AST TO STL
Baron Davis 48.1 67.6 34.3 15.9 3.6 5.1 3.2 2.5
Derrick Rose 47.1 67.6 34.0 14.2 4.5 4.4 3.0 1.2
Rose, this year, is nearly statistically identical to Baron Davis in his sophomore year…other than steals and a few small bumps in PTS and ASTs. Now that’s impressive. And, with Rose’s recent improved play, who’s to say that those numbers won’t increase to better than Baron’s?
Oh yea, did I fail to mention that they’re nearly identical in size and Rose is even quite a bit more athletic? Would anyone like a younger, more athletic, far less injury prone Baron Davis on their team? I would….
So, where do we go as a squad if we select Rose? Well, as I showed with Beasley, unless we draft a Center, we’re going to have a complete roster log jam no matter what position we go with.
Now, obviously Rose is going to have to be your starting PG if you commit such a high pick to him on a young team. This bumps Bassy and Foye out of the starting PG position. Now, who would be a better fit at the 2-guard alongside Rose? Being that Rose likely won’t have great range from NBA 3 or at least will need to develop it over time, we’d want a good shooting 2 guard alongside Rose on the perimeter to stretch the defense. That immediately eliminates Brewer—that’s OK because I prefer him as our future 3 anyway. Foye’s outside shot certainly has improved, but to what degree? Unfortunately, we don’t know that yet. McCants is one of the top 3 point shooters in the league at the moment, but his defense is weak, and when coupled with Rose, that may leave us a bit weak in terms of perimeter defense. Still, he seems to be the best option we have and would do fine.
My solution for the team if we draft Rose is to sign-and-trade Bassy for a good-sized, young backup PF, let the Rhino walk, resign Gomes for a couple years, target Dorsey, Jawai or Hardin in the early 2nd round. This would leave us with the following lineup:
Rose/Foye
McCants/Foye
Gomes/Brewer/Walker
Jefferson/Bassy Sign-and-trade/Walker
Dorsey-Jawai-Hardin/Richard
That’s a pretty dynamic team overall, and one I’d be very happy with.
Unfortunately, everyone would have to realize that Rose isn’t going to take the NBA by storm right away. The kid isn’t even taking the college game by storm. So, it’s likely a 1 step backward for 2 steps forward type thing with Rose and a new, young center (actually, hopefully it’s 1 step backward for 19 steps forward type thing).
So, if you can’t tell, despite the fact that a Rose selections would make 3 selections of 6’4’’ guards in a row, I’d be very, very pleased with Derrick Rose in a Timberwolves uniform next year.
#3 DeAndre Jordan. 7’0’’ 250 lb. C Texas A&M
DeAndre Jordan brings boom or bust to a whole new level. If you actually haven’t done shit and are still projected as a top 3 pick a very, very deep draft, you have to be one hell of a physical specimen. And, DeAndre Jordan is just that.
Have you ever seen a 7 footer with superhuman strength and build do a dunk like this?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN2RoJD3dx8
That’s some crazy, crazy stuff. 7 footers that are that athletic don’t bust. They become Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler. Unfortunately, all of these players take years to develop and Jordan seems to be a lot more unpolished than any of those three, except maybe Chandler, at this stage of the game. Remember, it took Chandler 4-5 years before he looked decent. It seems funny now, but there was a point where he was considered a Kwame Brown/Michael Olowakandi type bust.
“Can we wait for this kid?” is the question. A major part of me thinks how can we not just put a player of his size and athletic ability next to big all and let him rebound and block shots by size alone? That would work wouldn’t it? Well, considering he’s only averaging 6.6 boards just over 1 shot block a game in college, that’s highly debatable. I honestly don’t know what his deal is. The 3 games I’ve watched Jordan, he’s had a several sprained ankle, so he didn’t show much.
The hard thing is if Jordan does become a Bynum or a Dwight Howard, he’d be the biggest impact of any of the potential draftees for this team and would be well worth the wait. A front court of Jefferson and Jordan could give us arguably the nastiest front court in the entire league and ensure us years upon years of success.
As for the ramifications of selecting Jordan, team-wise it’s an easy deal—just plug the kid in at center.
Telfair/Foye
McCants/Foye
Gomes/Brewer/Walker
Jefferson/Smith/Walker
Jordan/Richard
Not bad.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Evaluating the 2008 NBA Draft class and the Potential Organizational Impact of Each Choice
To a young, rebuilding NBA team like our Timberwolves, a top draft choice for the organization is in the same league as a convincing hair piece for Brett Michaels.
We’ve got a big-time piece (player not hair) in Al Jefferson. We seemingly have solid glue guys in Telfair, Gomes and Brewer. Foye and McCants are ridiculously talented but hardly convincing thus far in terms of becoming a franchise-type player.
Pretty much all championship teams have two or three big-time franchise guys—Duncan/Manu/Parker, Jordan/Pippen, Bird/McHale/Parrish, Magic/Kareem/Worthy, Hakeem/Clyde, Shaq/Kobe, etc.
Well, the best way to bring a franchise-changing player to a frozen hell (sorry, it’s February…) like Minneapolis is through a top draft pick (take Felton Spencer or Christian Laettner for instance…oh wait). Obviously, we of all organizations (and the Hawks and Clippers) know the potential pitfalls and rewards (mostly pitfalls) of selecting in this position; researching every aspect of these players is a must. Since we clearly know our organization won’t do this (see Glen Taylor’s interview with Rick Alonzo and/or Britt Robson), we as fans will have to know as much as we can and threaten the Target Center with fire should they not select our favorite draft choice.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the top 7 prospects in the upcoming NBA draft. Why did I choose 7? Because I want to…and if we end up with the 8th or higher pick in this draft without going on a 15 game win streak, the NBA is officially rigged and who gives a shit about this blog, the league or the Wolves anyway. So, today I’ll cover #1 Michael Beasley. I’ll cover #2 Derrick Rose and #3 DeAndre Jordan tomorrow. I’ll cover #4 Eric Gordon and #5 Brook Lopez on Thursday. Finally, I’ll cover #6 Donte Greene and #7 OJ Mayo on Friday. (Take in mind that the player ranks are not the order of who I would prefer to draft rather the seemingly consensus overall draft board at this point).
#1 Michael Beasley. 6’9’’ 235 lb. PF/SF Kansas State
Ahh...Mr. Beasley—what a conundrum. The kid undoubtedly has perennial all-star ability. He’s a scoring machine. He’s a rebounding animal. He’s unreal athletic. He’s absurd…but can anyone get past the fact that he has the same look as Latrell Sprewell on his face AT ALL TIMES? Be honest, how shocked would you be if the cops busted into a hotel room tonight and found him with three dead hookers and a kilo of blow? Then, how shocked would you be if the same thing happened to Randy Foye or Eric Gordon. Exactly.
We’ve all heard the attitude whispers. The guy’s a classic case of risk and reward. Do we bring him in on a team of young, talented, team-oriented good character guys? Do we risk him inevitably bearing a major portion of the scoring load and becoming a team leader? Do we risk have two big-time front court players that treat defense like a naked Bridgette Nielsen in your bathroom? What are the odds that Beasley and Telfair have an Auburn Hills incident just with glocks? Then again, what are the odds that Beasley and Jefferson guarantee you 50-60 points and 20-30 rebounds a night and completely beat every 3-4 or 4-5 in the NBA to submission en route to become the next big 1, 2 championship punch? It’s a tough choice.
Let’s say we do end up selecting Michael Beasley. What type of position does this put our franchise in?
Well, the first major issue is where do you play Beasley? He’s definitely a tweener 3/4 Unfortunately, I think he’d serve better as a 4. But, I also think Beasley make for a better 3 than Jefferson is a 5. So, we’d likely want to play Beasley at the 3. While this is nice, it still doesn’t solve our problem at center. We’d also likely have to convince Gomes to backup both the 3 and 4. For what he may get on the open market, that might be a tough convince job. Nonetheless, I think this organization understands he’s valuable team guy and may be willing to give him starters dollars anyway, likely at the expense of letting Craig Smith walk.
So, now we’ve got the 3 & 4 locked up between Jefferson, Beasley and Gomes. What about the backcourt? Well, here’s where things get interesting. Though a lot of people say you always have to play your best players, a lineup of Foye/McCants/Beasley/Jefferson/? just wouldn’t work (assuming in all future Beasley scenarios the ? is either Diop, Hardin, Dorsey, Jawai, etc.). There’s no way there would be enough balls to go around on the court and there certainly is a lot left to be desired defensively…
It’s really too bad neither Telfair nor Brewer can shoot a lick because Telfair/Brewer/Beasley/Jefferson/? would almost make sense…but then again, there’s absolutely no perimeter shooting threat. Telfair/McCants-Foye/Beasley/Jefferson/? is a better option, but I still think we’d be a little weak on the perimeter in terms of defense.
My preference would be Foye/Brewer/Beasley/Jefferson/? but who knows if Foye can distribute the ball, and Foye-Beasley-Jefferson would have to put MV3-like scoring to compensate for Brewer and our future center’s likely complete lack of offense.
Considering at least 2 of Foye, McCants, Gomes, Brewer and Telfair end up playing a limited role in all of the above scenarios and any other plausible Beasley scenarios, the two left out (or more) would be far valuable in a trade to net us a) a very good pass-first PG with good defense b) a tall 2 with fantastic perimeter defense and good to great scoring ability c) a pot sweetener for big-time C trade.
Fantasy trade scenarios are usually ridiculous and the market has been so volatile in the NBA lately, so it’s basically useless for me to speculate here. But, you all get the picture. Feel free to speculate in the comments section if you’d like.
We’ve got a big-time piece (player not hair) in Al Jefferson. We seemingly have solid glue guys in Telfair, Gomes and Brewer. Foye and McCants are ridiculously talented but hardly convincing thus far in terms of becoming a franchise-type player.
Pretty much all championship teams have two or three big-time franchise guys—Duncan/Manu/Parker, Jordan/Pippen, Bird/McHale/Parrish, Magic/Kareem/Worthy, Hakeem/Clyde, Shaq/Kobe, etc.
Well, the best way to bring a franchise-changing player to a frozen hell (sorry, it’s February…) like Minneapolis is through a top draft pick (take Felton Spencer or Christian Laettner for instance…oh wait). Obviously, we of all organizations (and the Hawks and Clippers) know the potential pitfalls and rewards (mostly pitfalls) of selecting in this position; researching every aspect of these players is a must. Since we clearly know our organization won’t do this (see Glen Taylor’s interview with Rick Alonzo and/or Britt Robson), we as fans will have to know as much as we can and threaten the Target Center with fire should they not select our favorite draft choice.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the top 7 prospects in the upcoming NBA draft. Why did I choose 7? Because I want to…and if we end up with the 8th or higher pick in this draft without going on a 15 game win streak, the NBA is officially rigged and who gives a shit about this blog, the league or the Wolves anyway. So, today I’ll cover #1 Michael Beasley. I’ll cover #2 Derrick Rose and #3 DeAndre Jordan tomorrow. I’ll cover #4 Eric Gordon and #5 Brook Lopez on Thursday. Finally, I’ll cover #6 Donte Greene and #7 OJ Mayo on Friday. (Take in mind that the player ranks are not the order of who I would prefer to draft rather the seemingly consensus overall draft board at this point).
#1 Michael Beasley. 6’9’’ 235 lb. PF/SF Kansas State
Ahh...Mr. Beasley—what a conundrum. The kid undoubtedly has perennial all-star ability. He’s a scoring machine. He’s a rebounding animal. He’s unreal athletic. He’s absurd…but can anyone get past the fact that he has the same look as Latrell Sprewell on his face AT ALL TIMES? Be honest, how shocked would you be if the cops busted into a hotel room tonight and found him with three dead hookers and a kilo of blow? Then, how shocked would you be if the same thing happened to Randy Foye or Eric Gordon. Exactly.
We’ve all heard the attitude whispers. The guy’s a classic case of risk and reward. Do we bring him in on a team of young, talented, team-oriented good character guys? Do we risk him inevitably bearing a major portion of the scoring load and becoming a team leader? Do we risk have two big-time front court players that treat defense like a naked Bridgette Nielsen in your bathroom? What are the odds that Beasley and Telfair have an Auburn Hills incident just with glocks? Then again, what are the odds that Beasley and Jefferson guarantee you 50-60 points and 20-30 rebounds a night and completely beat every 3-4 or 4-5 in the NBA to submission en route to become the next big 1, 2 championship punch? It’s a tough choice.
Let’s say we do end up selecting Michael Beasley. What type of position does this put our franchise in?
Well, the first major issue is where do you play Beasley? He’s definitely a tweener 3/4 Unfortunately, I think he’d serve better as a 4. But, I also think Beasley make for a better 3 than Jefferson is a 5. So, we’d likely want to play Beasley at the 3. While this is nice, it still doesn’t solve our problem at center. We’d also likely have to convince Gomes to backup both the 3 and 4. For what he may get on the open market, that might be a tough convince job. Nonetheless, I think this organization understands he’s valuable team guy and may be willing to give him starters dollars anyway, likely at the expense of letting Craig Smith walk.
So, now we’ve got the 3 & 4 locked up between Jefferson, Beasley and Gomes. What about the backcourt? Well, here’s where things get interesting. Though a lot of people say you always have to play your best players, a lineup of Foye/McCants/Beasley/Jefferson/? just wouldn’t work (assuming in all future Beasley scenarios the ? is either Diop, Hardin, Dorsey, Jawai, etc.). There’s no way there would be enough balls to go around on the court and there certainly is a lot left to be desired defensively…
It’s really too bad neither Telfair nor Brewer can shoot a lick because Telfair/Brewer/Beasley/Jefferson/? would almost make sense…but then again, there’s absolutely no perimeter shooting threat. Telfair/McCants-Foye/Beasley/Jefferson/? is a better option, but I still think we’d be a little weak on the perimeter in terms of defense.
My preference would be Foye/Brewer/Beasley/Jefferson/? but who knows if Foye can distribute the ball, and Foye-Beasley-Jefferson would have to put MV3-like scoring to compensate for Brewer and our future center’s likely complete lack of offense.
Considering at least 2 of Foye, McCants, Gomes, Brewer and Telfair end up playing a limited role in all of the above scenarios and any other plausible Beasley scenarios, the two left out (or more) would be far valuable in a trade to net us a) a very good pass-first PG with good defense b) a tall 2 with fantastic perimeter defense and good to great scoring ability c) a pot sweetener for big-time C trade.
Fantasy trade scenarios are usually ridiculous and the market has been so volatile in the NBA lately, so it’s basically useless for me to speculate here. But, you all get the picture. Feel free to speculate in the comments section if you’d like.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Wolves Need to be Centered
“I will find a center in you. I will chew it up and leave” – Kevin McHale…I mean Maynard James Keenan, Tool
You really have to question that sanity of a person when he or she makes the same mistake over and over and over (take Richard Simmons waking up every morning for instance).
While the discretion of the Minnesota Timberwolves brass, namely Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale, has been more than questioned, I think it’s time that we start questioning their sanity as well. After all, how many of us were pining for a punishing, defensive-oriented big man to place next to Kevin Garnett for all of these years? Was there ever a move for McHale to make that was more obvious (other than switching sweater stores and getting a real haircut)?
We did have one good year of Ervin Johnson at the very twilight of his career…and how’d that work out? Anyway, so we traded our first and only franchise player and in return as the centerpiece of the deal received another franchise power forward in Al Jefferson…who happens to be defensively deficient.
Let’s think about a few numbers here, and see if you can connect the dots. Right now, your Timberwolves rank 2nd last in the league in blocks, 5th to last in opposing FG% and they’re middle of the pack in team rebounding despite Big Al being one of the elite rebounding big men in the game. Who are the top 4 Timberwolves in +/- for the team? Mark Madsen, Rashad McCants, Chris Richard, Theo Ratliff (Michael Doleac is +2.4 for the record). Notice a trend there? 3 out of 4 of those players are Centers. Al Jefferson’s +/- at PF: -1.8. At C? -13.7. Al Jefferson’s PER at PF: +10.3. At C? +4.7.
To do a little basic statistical analysis for you, the Wolves allow a lot of high-percentage shots in the paint, struggle with rebounding outside of Al Jefferson, consistently out-score the other team when a center is on the court and our franchise PF plays far better at his natural position instead of masquerading a Center. Do you think we need a big man at the 5?
Now the question is—what are the Wolves going to do about it? They can continue ignoring the problem until one day Taylor wakes up and Target Center is scorched earth (we’ve seen the threats Rube Chat posters…it’s only a matter of time if the madness continues). Or, as Shooter said for the Twins, “Look for the Timberwolves to acquire a center via free agency, trade or draft” (classic Shooter insight).
Here are some interesting summer of 2008 free agent options:
Emeka Okafor – Emeka would be sooo nice next to Al it’s insane. Oh wait, I forgot that he’s restricted and thinks he’s worth a max contract. That’d be like paying more than a nickel for a lap dance at Skyway Lounge…(visitors know what I’m talking about…you know who you are).
DeSagna Diop – Interesting player. He’s a true 7 footer that blocks shots and won’t try to be a part of the offense like the Kandi-man (smart guy that Olowakandi…lets take shots away from the MV3, so we can watch your high-ass airball 3 foot jump hooks).
…and a bunch of other garbage that pisses me of.
So, it looks like screw free agency. It’s not like we’ve had historical success there anyway.
As for acquiring a center via trade, two ideal fits would be Joakim Noah and Darko Milicic. Noah, while likely not available, would be a great fit next to Jefferson. He never stops running, he plays great D, has a high basketball IQ, rotates defensively, passes exceptionally well for a big man and best off all, Noah just wants to do what’s good for the team. Could we possibly bait the Bulls into sending us Noah for a McCants + filler package if/when Ben Gordon walks this summer? That would be nice considering the wealth of 2 guard talent high in the draft and lack of viable centers (we’ll get to that in a second). Darko would be solid as well as he’s another legit 7 footer, is a fantastic shot blocker, solid rebounder and loves to bang in the paint. Rumor is that anyone can be had in Memphis for the right price (other than Rudy Alternative Lifestyle). It stands to reason we have the appealing trade options to make it happen.
Finally, let’s take a look at the draft. As we all know, the draft is a massive question mark. Considering where we’re at in the standings, the Wolves will likely have a top 5 pick. Unfortunately for us, the only C prospect in that area is DeAndre Jordan. While I am exceptionally enthralled by DeAndre Jordan’s raw ability (how many insanely athletic legit 7 footers that happen to be natural brickhouses flop in the NBA? His odds of busting are about the same as Larry David getting laid because of his looks), he’s definitely a 2-5 year project. I mean this kid could be anywhere from the Andrew Bynum timeline to Tyson Chandler timeline. Foye should be hitting his prime in a year or two. Jefferson is a big-time player right now. McCants, Telfair and Gomes are getting there. Brewer should develop quite a bit in year’s time. I’m not so sure this franchise can wait 3 years for this kid to come around. Then again, you’d hope an athletic 7 footer could at least step in and rebound and block shots right away. And, if he becomes a Bynum/Dwight Howard type player, we likely have the best front court in the league for years and years. DeAndre’s a rough one. We’ll have to see how he plays for the rest of the year and how he does in workouts.
So, if we don’t look for a big man at the top of the draft, we could trade for a late first rounder or use our early second rounder on one of the following:
- DeVon Hardin: I still have yet to see this monster from Cal play, but from what I’ve heard and read, he’s a defensive beast, blocks shots and has great character. Apparently, he’s athletic as hell and is a 4.0 student to boot.
- Nathan Jawai: Would there be anything greater for fans with a 6’10, 280 pound super-strong Aborigine man roaming in the paint? It might be worth it for the unintentional comedy and “The Air Up There” references alone (yes, I know Aborigines are in Australia…but still). Anyway, Jawai is a bit raw at the moment, but he is a young monster that has fantastic shot-blocking and defensive instincts. He’s the MVP in the Australian league (yes, dominating Rick Rickert) right now and will be an interesting guy to watch come draft camp time.
- Joey Dorsey: I spotted Mr. Dorsey last February and immediately began hyping him as a young Ben Wallace clone and the perfect compliment for Mr. Garnett. Well, it’s a year later, Dorsey’s a year better, and I think he’d be a great piece next to Big Al. Dorsey is a defensive killer. Believe it or not, he may even be a scarier physical specimen than Wallace, is extremely aggressive, a fantastic shot blocker, runs the floor like an animal and wants to destroy the other team’s life. If we could cattle-prod Dorsey and Chris Richard for about half an hour before each game next year and let them loose as a rotation at center next year, I’d be a happy man.
So, there are our options. Personally, I hope most of you can get worked up enough about one of these guys just to get extremely disappointed when McHale takes 2 guards with both of our draft picks, decides not to extend Chris Richards’ contract and signs Brock Lesnar to a guaranteed 5 year contract. What’s being a Wolves fan without McHale kicking you in the junk now and then?
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