And, to round out my extensive draft evaluation, we have two draft prospects that, in my mind, are safe bets. OJ Mayo and Donte Greene are going to be good NBA players. While Mayo and Greene could end up as among the best players in the NBA a la Beasley, Rose, Jordan and Gordon, I don’t see it as likely as the aforementioned four. But, they are nice players already and definitely don’t have the bust potential of aforementioned four as well. Here’s my breakdown.
#6 Donte Greene. 6’10’’ 226 lb. SF/PF Syracuse
To put it simply, Donte Greene is a hybrid of Rashard Lewis and Eddie Griffin. He not only plays like the two combined, he looks like the two of them if you did one of those face combo deals you see on Conan O’Brien. It’s almost strange.
Donte will be quickly successful in the NBA just because his skill-set will make him an immediate mismatch at 3 spot. First of all, Donte Greene is an amazingly dangerous outside shooter. He’s much like Rashard Lewis in that regard. He’s got a calm, smooth demeanor as he hovers around the arc, drawing his big-man defender out of his comfort zone, and his shot is equally smooth upon release. Though he’s only shooting 37% from behind the arc, his technique is great and touch is equally fantastic.
On top of that, he’s a legit 6’10’’ and has fantastic PF/C-like rebounding and blocking instincts. So, why wouldn’t we play him at the 4? Well, he’s probably a little to skinny in the frame to bang with big boys all game, first of all. Plus, his fantastic athleticism and height advantage would allow him to defend most 3’s. Thus, comparatively, he’d be a much, much bigger match-up issue at the 3.
So, why don’t we just draft Donte now if he’s so ridiculously good. Well, as with any young prospect, he does have a few issues. For one, Donte falls in love with the 3-point shot. I’ve seen him play about 5 or 6 times this year. The last two he was a combined 2 for 15 from the 3-point arc and looked pretty brutal. What’s weird about Donte is that when he decides to, he’s actually pretty effective at slashing to the basket. If a team could teach him to understand the effectiveness of being a dual threat, he’d be a much more dominant scorer.
In a nutshell, Donte, as most major prospects are, has all of the skills to be a dominant NBA player, but still needs a lot of work to put it together. His success is completely dependant on to what degree he ever “figures it out.”
So, what are the T-Wolves ramifications if we select Donte Greene. Well, for one, we still have a hole at center. Secondly, we likely would have to let Ryan Gomes walk who is seemingly developing into a solid NBA player in favor for a all-potential kid who will likely need 3 years to become an effective scoring force.
That being said, if Greene could live up to his potential and Brewer could learn to shoot, a lineup of:
Telfair/Foye (or Foye/Telfair)
Brewer
Greene
Jefferson
Hardin-Dorsey-Jawai/Richard
…has potential to be a defensive beast of a team with over-flowing rebounding, size, shot-blocking and athleticism. This brings me to a best-possible Wolves scenario (which, as usual, will never happen).
Let’s say we end up with a top 2 pick and Memphis is in the 3-7 range. Considering Memphis’s potential need for a SG and lack of desire to add payroll, could we swing a Foye + Miami future 1st deal for the 3-7 pick (Foye’s contract would be less than that of the 3-7 pick in the year’s draft, has fewer years + he’d be a nice SG option for them and a good pair with Lowry/Conley)? If so, I’d select Derrick Rose and then Donte Greene.
Rose
Brewer
Greene
Jefferson
Dorsey
Now, there’s your juggernaut. You have a 6’4’’ physical specimen at PG. Then, at the 2-5, you have players of the following height: 6’9’’, 6’10’’, 6’10’’, 6’10. Not to mention Rose, Greene and Jefferson have what it takes to be elite scorers in the league and all in different areas (Rose: slasher/creator; Greene: perimeter threat; Jefferson: post animal) and Brewer and Dorsey have what it takes to be premier perimeter and interior defenders in the league respectively. Oh, and they’re all 23 and younger…I like.
#7 O.J. Mayo. 6’5’’ 195 lb. PG/SG. USC
Everyone here is familiar with OJ Mayo. I mean the kid scored 27 points, had seven rebounds and had three steals in high school varsity debut…as a 7th grader!
OJ’s a weird animal. He seemingly has that “it” that Kobe, MJ, T-Mac have. I watched him score 63 points or something in a high school game last year in one of the most absurd performances I’ve ever seen.
Nonetheless, he’s not highest regarded prospect in this draft. In fact, you’ll notice that I have him at #7. This is about the average position I have him at because some mock drafts I see have him as high as #3 and as low as #11. He’s all over the place.
Like Rose, though Mayo still shows flashes of extreme superstardom, he’s struggled a bit at the collegiate level. For one, what position is Mayo? He doesn’t seemingly have the PG instincts as Rose, but he’s certainly not void of them either—he can run an offense. But, like a Gilbert Arenas, he’s primarily looking to score for himself. Unfortunately, the other players on Mayo’s team are garbage in my opinion and Tim Floyd’s offense isn’t exactly up Mayo’s play-making alley with it’s drawn-out plays leading to isolations at the low end of the shot clock (thank you draftexpress for pointing that out to me…which is in deed true). Though Mayo’s shot is nice, his shooting hasn’t been fantastic—shooting 43% from the field and 37% from downtown. Plus, Mayo’s averaging more turnovers than assists. At the same time, Mayo has instances like last night in which he dropped an effortless 20 in the first half last night and clearly looked like he was 4 or 5 leagues better than everyone else on the court.
Basically, with all of Mayo’s talent there are a ton of questions. Is he the next Gilbert Arenas? Does a Gilbert Arenas type allow you to actually win in the NBA? Is he the next Kobe? Will he be able to score effectively in the NBA? Can he run an NBA offense? Could he evolve into a taller, more-dangerous Chris Paul?
That’s the problem—who knows? In my opinion, other than maybe Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo’s stock will be the most highly dependant on his tournament showing. If he comes out as the type of player that can completely take over games and lead USC on a big run, he’ll have people all over him. If he distributes the ball and his team-game leadership allows USC to go on a big run, he’ll have teams begging for him. If he fizzles out, scoring 18 point with 5 TOs on 35% shooting, he could drop to the 10s in the draft order. We’ll just have to wait and see if he has the magic.
So, as for the ramifications of drafting Mayo, I really don’t know because I’m still not sure what position he plays. Would it be a good idea to tandem him with Foye in the backcourt? Would Mayo at point and Shaddy at the 2 make any sense? Maybe, with Telfair’s recent surge, we would want Telfair at the 1 and Mayo at the 2…I don’t know. The OJ Mayo saga is certainly a “To Be Continued…”
UP NEXT (Hopefully Monday’s blog…maybe Sunday…maybe Wednesday…who knows): What it takes to be an average starter in the NBA…My TWolves-Celtics home game experience…The Short-Term effects of extreme reptile crack use…
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3 comments:
The thing with these 2 is that even though they both have their ups and downs, I haven't seen 2 other players in the draft dominate the entire court like they have when they've been "on". Granted, the sample size is pretty small, but when Green is putting the ball on the floor and using his court vision, he's a downright mismatch in college and the pros. Even Beasley doesn't have that combo of athleticism and size/length/ball-handling skills. Mayo settles for the j too often, but when he keeps the shots down to a minimum, slashes, and plays hard on d, he's a dangerous player. I have Green listed as #2 on my draft board. He'd fill a huge need for the club: a perimeter-proficient big wing player who could relieve pressure on Big Al and take his man off the dribble.
Great, and I agree. Both players have all of the tools, but I think the key is what you touched on in that they both fall in love without the outside shot.
If they could get a dual threat game down and get to free-throw line in the NBA, each could certainly be an All-Star.
I'd have to say I like Greene over Beasley.. just too much of a bad vibe from Beasley. I get the picture he's going to want to be THE guy, which doesn't sit well with me.
Also, Greene looks like more of a perimeter player than Beasley. I love his range, and, unlike Beasley, he actually looks like he could turn into an impact defender with his length and lateral quickness.
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